Sport Picks
Colchester vs Cheltenham - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
League Two Colchester Community Stadium (JobServe), Colchester 
Match Events
10'
10'
McWilliams S.
18'
18'
Evans J.
28'
28'
Thorn O.
AI Match Summary
The League Two game between Colchester and Cheltenham finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
15%
35%
50%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cheltenham
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cheltenham carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Colchester Clean Sheet 11%
Cheltenham Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Colchester | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.32 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 League Two
Colchester vs Cheltenham
1:1
May 2, 2026 League Two
Cheltenham vs Colchester
1:4
Nov 29, 2025 League Two
Colchester vs Cheltenham
2:0
Mar 8, 2025 League Two
Cheltenham vs Colchester
0:1
Jan 14, 2025 EFL Trophy
Cheltenham vs Colchester
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Colchester Compare
Top Goalscorer Sesay M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Cheltenham Compare
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Colchester 35 / 100
Cheltenham 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Colchester Cheltenham
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cheltenham Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Cheltenham conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.
Colchester found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Colchester stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Colchester VS Cheltenham
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Colchester
(Home) 03 Oct
Colchester
1 : 2 Luton
26 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 2 Colchester
22 Sept
Peterborough
3 : 1 Colchester
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Cheltenham
12 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Crewe
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Colchester
1 : 2 Luton
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Cheltenham
12 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Crewe
29 Aug
Colchester
1 : 0 Rochdale
22 Aug
Colchester
2 : 1 Oldham
Page 1 of 3
Cheltenham
(Away) 03 Oct
Accrington
2 : 0 Cheltenham
26 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 1 Chesterfield
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 Exeter
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Cheltenham
12 Sept
Crawley Town
1 : 3 Cheltenham
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Accrington
2 : 0 Cheltenham
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Cheltenham
12 Sept
Crawley Town
1 : 3 Cheltenham
29 Aug
Barnet
2 : 2 Cheltenham
22 Aug
Swindon
2 : 1 Cheltenham
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13:10 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:10 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11:7 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 15 |
| 6 | York City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11:5 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10:11 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12:12 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:13 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12:12 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:14 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:10 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5:6 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3:6 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3:9 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | 4 |
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)
