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Colchester vs Rochdale - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Colchester Community Stadium (JobServe), Colchester
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Hunt R.
40'
Gilmour H.
57'
Sub
Ihionvien B. In: Chiwome L.
Out: Ihionvien B.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Colchester and Rochdale finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Colchester.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Colchester
30%
Draws
52%
Rochdale
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rochdale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Rochdale carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Colchester's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Colchester Clean Sheet 16%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Colchester Rochdale
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 League Two
Colchester vs Rochdale
1:0
Jan 14, 2023 League Two
Rochdale vs Colchester
1:2
Sep 24, 2022 League Two
Colchester vs Rochdale
0:1
Feb 1, 2022 League Two
Colchester vs Rochdale
1:1
Aug 27, 2021 League Two
Rochdale vs Colchester
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Colchester Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Rochdale Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colchester 36 / 100
Rochdale 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Colchester Rochdale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rochdale let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Colchester's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Colchester remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Colchester VS Rochdale
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Colchester

(Home)
03 Oct
Colchester
1 : 2
Luton
26 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 2
Colchester
22 Sept
Peterborough
3 : 1
Colchester
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1
Cheltenham
12 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1
Crewe
Page 1 of 6

Rochdale

(Away)
06 Oct
Huddersfield
5 : 0
Rochdale
03 Oct
Rochdale
1 : 0
Swindon
26 Sept
Fleetwood Town
1 : 2
Rochdale
22 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 4
Liverpool U21
19 Sept
Rochdale
2 : 0
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11:7 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16:14 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 14:14 15
6 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13:10 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10:11 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12:12 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9:14 11
15 Newport 9 2 4 3 12:12 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13:14 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9:10 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5:6 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)