Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Colima FC play Alacranes de Durango in the Liga Premier Serie A. Alacranes de Durango are favorites here. Recently, Colima FC averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. Alacranes de Durango averaged 2.41 goals scored and 0.69 conceded. In past meetings, Colima FC won 1, Alacranes de Durango won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.83 for Colima FC and 2.38 for Alacranes de Durango. This points to a Alacranes de Durango double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%

Colima FC

15%

Draws

70%

Alacranes de Durango

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alacranes de Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Colima FC picked up more points recently compared to Alacranes de Durango.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.83 vs 2.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 57%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Colima FC Clean Sheet 10%

Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Colima FC	Alacranes de Durango
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	4	22
Draws	5	6
Losses	21	4
Goals Scored	0.83	2.41
Goals Conceded	1.87	0.69
Expected Goals (xG)	1.29	2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Colima FC vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 53% - 57% Cards: 3 - 2

1:4

Oct 4, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Colima FC

Possession: 52% - 54% Cards: 3 - 0

1:3

Mar 30, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Colima FC vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Oct 28, 2023 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Colima FC

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 3 - 1

4:0

Mar 5, 2022 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Colima FC

Possession: 53% - 45% Cards: 3 - 1

6:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colima FC 16 / 100

Alacranes de Durango 67 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Colima FC Alacranes de Durango

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alacranes de Durango Win (2)

Secondary Pick Alacranes de Durango & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +114.3%

14.29

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.7%

1.96

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Colima FC attacking → ← attacking Alacranes de Durango

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Colima FC scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Alacranes de Durango let in goals in 53% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Colima FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Alacranes de Durango lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 72

1.29 Goals expected (xG) 2.75

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17