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Collerense vs El Espinar Sant Rafel

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Collerense play El Espinar Sant Rafel in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Collerense averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. El Espinar Sant Rafel averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, Collerense won 2, El Espinar Sant Rafel won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 16, 2022 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Collerense and 1.44 for El Espinar Sant Rafel. This points to a Collerense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Collerense
18%
Draws
34%
El Espinar Sant Rafel
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Collerense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Collerense picked up more points recently compared to El Espinar Sant Rafel.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Collerense Clean Sheet 16%
El Espinar Sant Rafel Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Collerense El Espinar Sant Rafel
Matches Played 40 32
Wins 13 7
Draws 11 7
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.43 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.69

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Collerense vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
2:1
Oct 17, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Collerense
2:0
May 15, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Collerense vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
2:1
Apr 24, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Collerense
3:2
Mar 7, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Collerense
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Collerense 46 / 100
El Espinar Sant Rafel 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Collerense El Espinar Sant Rafel

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Collerense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20%
2.50
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Collerense attacking → ← attacking El Espinar Sant Rafel

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Collerense scored in 70% of their last 40 games.

El Espinar Sant Rafel let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Collerense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

El Espinar Sant Rafel lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 28
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mallorca B403253105:27101
2Manacor402641074:4282
3UD Poblense40248889:2480
4Platges de Calvia402211756:2777
5Llosetense40229962:3675
6Santanyi402361166:4675
7Constancia402091154:3869
8PE Sant Jordi402081257:4668
9Portmany4017111255:5162
10Collerense401771645:4958
11Soller401691546:5257
12Binissalem4013121540:4451
13Mercadal4011121754:5145
14Inter Ibiza401272151:6243
15Rotlet Molinar401192035:5342
16El Espinar Sant Rafel4010102048:6440
17Campos4010102038:6440
18Felanitx409112043:6538
19Serverense40872535:7431
20Murense40582731:7623
21Son Veri40433328:12115