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Colombia vs Bolivia

World World

Friendly International 2024 Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Colombia play Bolivia in the Friendly International 2024. Colombia are favorites here. Recently, Colombia averaged 1.81 goals scored and 0.84 conceded. Bolivia averaged 0.77 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Colombia won 3, Bolivia won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 4, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Colombia and 0.88 for Bolivia. This points to a Colombia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Colombia
17%
Draws
25%
Bolivia
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Colombia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Colombia picked up more points recently compared to Bolivia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Colombia Clean Sheet 25%
Bolivia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Colombia Bolivia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 3
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.81 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.84 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2025 World Championship
Colombia vs Bolivia
3:0
Oct 10, 2024 World Championship
Bolivia vs Colombia
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 Friendly International
Colombia vs Bolivia
3:0
Mar 24, 2022 World Championship
Colombia vs Bolivia
3:0
Sep 2, 2021 World Championship
Bolivia vs Colombia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Colombia Compare

Top Goalscorer Arias J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cordoba J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Bolivia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colombia 57 / 100
Bolivia 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Colombia Bolivia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Colombia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Colombia & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16%
2.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Colombia attacking → ← attacking Bolivia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Colombia scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Bolivia let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Colombia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Bolivia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 27
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75