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Colombo vs UP Country Lions - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka

Super League
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Colombo host UP Country Lions in the Super League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. UP Country Lions have shipped 0.97 goals a game lately, while Colombo have conceded 1.1 and scored 2.2. Past meetings favor Colombo slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 8, 2026, ending 0:2. xG projections (0.94 - 2.25) back Colombo to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Colombo
20%
Draws
52%
UP Country Lions
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UP Country Lions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Colombo haven't matched UP Country Lions's recent run of results.
  • UP Country Lions are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Colombo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Colombo Clean Sheet 10%
UP Country Lions Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Colombo UP Country Lions
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 19
Draws 9 1
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 2.2 2.4
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Super League
Colombo vs UP Country Lions
0:2
Dec 29, 2021 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Colombo
2:3
Oct 27, 2018 Super League
Colombo vs UP Country Lions
4:3
Oct 7, 2017 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Colombo
0:3
Jul 31, 2016 Super League
Colombo vs UP Country Lions
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colombo 10 / 100
UP Country Lions 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Colombo UP Country Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UP Country Lions Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Colombo's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: UP Country Lions conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Colombo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Colombo VS UP Country Lions
1.5 Goals Scored 4.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Colombo

(Home)
12 Sept
Red Star
2 : 2
Colombo
08 Sept
Colombo
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
31 Aug
Sea Hawks
1 : 1
Colombo
23 Aug
Blue Star
0 : 2
Colombo
14 Aug
Blue Eagles
0 : 1
Colombo
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UP Country Lions

(Away)
13 Sept
Renown
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
08 Sept
Colombo
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
28 Aug
UP Country Lions
4 : 0
Blue Eagles
22 Aug
UP Country Lions
6 : 0
New Young's SC
16 Aug
Ratnam SC
1 : 5
UP Country Lions
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