Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 Llanelian Road

Penybont

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Colwyn Bay play Penybont in the Cymru Premier 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Colwyn Bay averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Penybont averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. In past meetings, Colwyn Bay won 2, Penybont won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Colwyn Bay and 0.81 for Penybont. This points to a Colwyn Bay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Colwyn Bay

20%

Draws

33%

Penybont

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Colwyn Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Colwyn Bay picked up more points recently compared to Penybont.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Colwyn Bay Clean Sheet 26%

Penybont Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Colwyn Bay	Penybont
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	14	9
Draws	4	7
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1.61	1.28
Goals Conceded	1.21	1.66
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Cymru Premier

Colwyn Bay vs Penybont

Possession: 54% - 49% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Mar 28, 2026 Cymru Premier

Penybont vs Colwyn Bay

Possession: 48% - 48% Cards: 2 - 4

0:0

Feb 21, 2026 Cymru Premier

Colwyn Bay vs Penybont

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Nov 29, 2025 Cymru Premier

Colwyn Bay vs Penybont

Possession: 52% - 42% Cards: 3 - 2

5:4

Sep 27, 2025 Cymru Premier

Penybont vs Colwyn Bay

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 4 - 2

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Colwyn Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Hughes G.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Astles R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Penybont Compare

Top Goalscorer Daley N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Colwyn Bay 48 / 100

Penybont 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Colwyn Bay Penybont

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Colwyn Bay or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Colwyn Bay attacking → ← attacking Penybont

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Colwyn Bay scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Penybont let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Colwyn Bay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Penybont lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 34

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	TNS	32	26	2	4	81:25	80
2	Connahs Q.	32	16	10	6	61:38	58
3	Barry Town	32	12	10	10	43:33	46
4	Caernarfon	32	12	9	11	56:47	45
5	Colwyn Bay	32	12	9	11	41:37	45
6	Penybont	32	11	8	13	39:49	41