Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Comercial MS vs Maracaju Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025
Comercial MS Logo

Comercial MS

1 - 1
FT
Maracaju Logo

Maracaju

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025 game between Comercial MS and Maracaju finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Comercial MS
20%
Draws
33%
Maracaju
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Comercial MS carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Comercial MS taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 12%
Maracaju Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial MS Maracaju
Matches Played 31 21
Wins 11 6
Draws 7 8
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.58 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Maracaju vs Comercial MS
3:1
Sep 22, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Maracaju
1:1
Feb 6, 2020 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Maracaju
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial MS 83 / 100
Maracaju 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial MS Maracaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.67 goals.

Comercial MS scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Maracaju's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 21 matches.

Solid form: Comercial MS remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Comercial MS VS Maracaju
1.5 Goals Scored 1.29
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
100% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 57%
50% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial MS

(Home)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 7

Maracaju

(Away)
01 Nov
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
6 : 0
Maracaju
26 Oct
Maracaju
3 : 1
Comercial MS
18 Oct
Bataguassu
3 : 1
Maracaju
11 Oct
Maracaju
3 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
05 Oct
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 1
Maracaju
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bataguassu 10 7 2 1 27:9 23
2 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 10 7 2 1 23:7 23
3 Maracaju 10 4 4 2 12:13 16
4 Comercial MS 10 2 4 4 12:17 10
5 Esporte Clube Taveiropolis 10 2 0 8 11:25 6
6 Sao Gabriel MS 10 1 2 7 6:20 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Main)