Sport Picks

Brazil

Série D 2011

Independente

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Comercial PI play Independente in the Série D 2011. It looks like a close match. Recently, Comercial PI averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Independente averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Comercial PI won 0, Independente won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 11, 2011 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.18 for Comercial PI and 0.82 for Independente. This points to a Independente double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Comercial PI

31%

Draws

40%

Independente

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Independente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Comercial PI picked up more points recently compared to Independente.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.18 vs 0.82 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Comercial PI Clean Sheet 26%

Independente Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Comercial PI	Independente
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	9
Draws	5	12
Losses	15	9
Goals Scored	0.97	1.1
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	0.86	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.14	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2011 Serie D

Comercial PI vs Independente

Possession: 50% - 45% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Jul 24, 2011 Serie D

Independente vs Comercial PI

Possession: 47% - 55% Cards: 0 - 4

4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial PI 31 / 100

Independente 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Comercial PI Independente

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Independente or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Comercial PI attacking → ← attacking Independente

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comercial PI scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Independente let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Comercial PI went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Independente lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 39

0.86 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.14 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cuiaba	8	5	1	2	19:11	16
2	Penarol	8	4	2	2	9:8	14
3	Placido de Castro	8	3	3	2	16:9	12
4	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	8	2	1	5	9:14	7
5	SE Vila Aurora	8	1	3	4	7:18	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independente	8	4	2	2	12:10	14
2	Sampaio Correa	8	4	1	3	17:8	13
3	Trem	8	3	2	3	8:11	11
4	Sao Raimundo RR	8	1	5	2	9:11	8
5	Comercial PI	8	2	2	4	9:15	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santa Cruz de Natal	8	5	1	2	9:6	16
2	Santa Cruz	8	4	3	1	10:6	15
3	Guarani de Juazeiro	8	3	2	3	7:4	11
4	Alecrim	8	3	0	5	7:12	9
5	CA Porto	8	1	2	5	6:11	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coruripe	8	5	1	2	13:11	16
2	Treze PB	8	5	0	3	14:11	15
3	Bahia de Feira	8	4	0	4	12:9	12
4	SE River Plate	8	2	2	4	10:12	8
5	Vitoria da Conquista	8	2	1	5	6:12	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tupi-MG	8	4	2	2	10:8	14
2	Anapolina	8	4	1	3	15:11	13
3	Itumbiara	8	4	1	3	13:10	13
4	Gama	8	2	3	3	8:9	9
5	Tocantinopolis	8	2	1	5	10:18	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Villa Nova AC	8	5	1	2	11:6	16
2	Volta Redonda	8	4	3	1	11:3	15
3	Audax RJ	8	3	2	3	13:7	11
4	Bosque Formosa	8	2	3	3	5:12	9
5	SAO Mateus	8	0	3	5	7:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Osasco Sporting	8	4	2	2	12:8	14
2	Mirassol	8	4	2	2	6:7	14
3	CENE	8	4	1	3	15:13	13
4	Operario-PR	8	3	1	4	7:9	10
5	Ceramica AC	8	1	2	5	6:9	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SE Juventude	8	6	1	1	19:7	19
2	Cianorte	8	4	2	2	9:9	14
3	Brusque	8	3	1	4	6:11	10
4	CA Metropolitano	8	3	0	5	14:16	9
5	Cruzeiro RS	8	1	2	5	6:11	5