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Comercial vs Barretos EC

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Chiari G.
79' Event
David
89' Event
Elyson

AI Match Summary

Barretos EC in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Barretos EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Comercial
30%
Draws
23%
Barretos EC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Comercial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Barretos EC haven't matched Comercial's recent run of results.
  • Comercial are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Comercial Clean Sheet 68%
Barretos EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial Barretos EC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 8
Draws 5 12
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.17 0.73
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Comercial vs Barretos EC
1:2
Jul 20, 2024 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Barretos EC
3:3
Jun 14, 2024 Copa Paulista
Barretos EC vs Comercial
1:1
Mar 26, 2022 Paulista A3
Barretos EC vs Comercial
1:1
May 12, 2021 Paulista A3
Comercial vs Barretos EC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comercial Compare

Top Goalscorer Elyson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Barretos EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Chiari G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader David
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial 95 / 100
Barretos EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial Barretos EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick COM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comercial scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Barretos EC conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Comercial has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Comercial VS Barretos EC
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial

(Home)
08 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Comercial
31 Jul
Comercial
0 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
25 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 2
Comercial
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0
Noroeste
04 Apr
Comercial
2 : 1
Tanabi
Page 1 of 6

Barretos EC

(Away)
19 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 0
Barretos EC
10 Apr
Barretos EC
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
04 Apr
Taquaritinga
2 : 0
Barretos EC
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Penapolense
1 : 1
Barretos EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)