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Comercial vs Lemense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Severino Moreira G. M.

AI Match Summary

Lemense in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lemense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Comercial
30%
Draws
23%
Lemense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Comercial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Comercial lately — more wins on the board than Lemense.
  • Win probability leans Comercial's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Comercial Clean Sheet 68%
Lemense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial Lemense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.06 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Paulista A4
Comercial vs Lemense
0:1
Jan 18, 2025 Paulista A3
Lemense vs Comercial
0:0
Feb 1, 2023 Paulista A2
Comercial vs Lemense
2:0
Nov 22, 2020 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Lemense
2:0
Nov 10, 2020 Copa Paulista
Lemense vs Comercial
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comercial Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Lemense Compare

Top Goalscorer Severino Moreira G. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.49
Avg xA / game 0.3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial 59 / 100
Lemense 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial Lemense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Comercial scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Lemense conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Lemense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Comercial VS Lemense
1.38 Goals Scored 0.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 83%
38% Over 2.5 17%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
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Lemense

(Away)
18 Apr
Inter de Bebedouro
2 : 0
Lemense
11 Apr
Lemense
0 : 2
Inter de Bebedouro
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)