Sport Picks
Match Events
48'
48'
Sousa P.
59'
59'
Sousa P.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-0, with Comercial advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Comercial
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Noroeste haven't matched Comercial's recent run of results.
- Comercial are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Comercial have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Noroeste, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Comercial Clean Sheet 68%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Comercial | Noroeste |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 11 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.5 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.50 | 0.75 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Noroeste
2:0
Jan 31, 2024 Paulista A2
Noroeste vs Comercial
1:1
Sep 3, 2023 Copa Paulista
Noroeste vs Comercial
3:0
Jul 30, 2023 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Noroeste
1:3
Feb 11, 2023 Paulista A2
Comercial vs Noroeste
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Comercial Compare
Top Goalscorer Sousa P.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67
Noroeste Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Comercial 95 / 100
Noroeste 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Comercial Noroeste
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick COM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Comercial found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Defensive concern: Noroeste conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Comercial went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Comercial VS Noroeste
1.33 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
67% Over 1.5 50%
33% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Comercial
(Home) 25 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 2 Comercial
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0 Noroeste
04 Apr
Comercial
2 : 1 Tanabi
28 Mar
Jabaquara
2 : 1 Comercial
25 Mar
Comercial
1 : 0 Inter de Bebedouro
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18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0 Noroeste
04 Apr
Comercial
2 : 1 Tanabi
25 Mar
Comercial
1 : 0 Inter de Bebedouro
18 Mar
Comercial
3 : 1 Vocem
07 Mar
Comercial
2 : 0 Nacional SP
Page 1 of 3
Noroeste
(Away) 25 Jul
Noroeste
2 : 2 Uniao Sao Joao
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0 Noroeste
28 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 3 Portuguesa RJ
21 Jun
Portuguesa RJ
1 : 1 Noroeste
07 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 0 Sampaio Correa FE
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0 Noroeste
21 Jun
Portuguesa RJ
1 : 1 Noroeste
30 May
Piracicaba
1 : 1 Noroeste
23 May
Nova Iguacu
1 : 0 Noroeste
09 May
Marica
0 : 3 Noroeste
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 2 | Gremio Prudente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Marilia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Bandeirante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comercial | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 3 | Noroeste | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 4 | Piracicaba | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus-SP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Primavera EC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Paulista | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Osasco Sporting | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:3 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Jose EC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 2 | EC Sao Bernardo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sao Caetano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 4 | Santo Andre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
