Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Comercial vs Noroeste

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista
Comercial Logo

Comercial

2 - 0
FT
Noroeste Logo

Noroeste

Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Sousa P.
59' Event
Sousa P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-3. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Comercial
35%
Draws
45%
Noroeste
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Noroeste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Noroeste haven't matched Comercial's recent run of results.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Comercial have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Noroeste, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Comercial Clean Sheet 21%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Comercial Noroeste
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 5 13
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.14 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Copa Paulista
Noroeste vs Comercial
4:3
Jul 18, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Noroeste
2:0
Jan 31, 2024 Paulista A2
Noroeste vs Comercial
1:1
Sep 3, 2023 Copa Paulista
Noroeste vs Comercial
3:0
Jul 30, 2023 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Noroeste
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Comercial Compare

Top Goalscorer Sousa P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Noroeste Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Comercial 37 / 100
Noroeste 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Comercial Noroeste

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Noroeste Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Comercial found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Noroeste conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Comercial went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Comercial VS Noroeste
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Comercial

(Home)
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
18 Aug
Comercial
0 : 1
Piracicaba
Page 1 of 6

Noroeste

(Away)
12 Sept
Primavera EC
2 : 2
Noroeste
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
19 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Noroeste
09 Aug
Noroeste
2 : 1
Piracicaba
01 Aug
Piracicaba
1 : 1
Noroeste
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Linense 6 4 2 0 11:3 14
2 Bandeirante 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
3 Gremio Prudente 6 2 1 3 4:7 7
4 Marilia 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Noroeste 6 2 3 1 10:10 9
2 Uniao Sao Joao 6 1 5 0 6:5 8
3 Comercial 6 2 1 3 8:7 7
4 Piracicaba 6 1 3 2 4:6 6
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Juventus-SP 6 3 1 2 11:5 10
2 Primavera EC 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
3 Paulista 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
4 Osasco Sporting 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sao Jose EC 6 4 1 1 9:5 13
2 EC Sao Bernardo 6 3 0 3 12:8 9
3 Sao Caetano 6 0 2 4 2:9 2
4 Santo Andre 6 3 1 2 4:5 0
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)