Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Confianca vs Guarani

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Maranhao
30'
Iago Silva
33'
Nathan Melo

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Confianca and Guarani finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Confianca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Confianca
35%
Draws
46%
Guarani
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Guarani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarani come out ahead of Confianca on wins alone.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Confianca Clean Sheet 17%
Guarani Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Confianca Guarani
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 0.84 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2026 Serie C
Confianca vs Guarani
2:0
Aug 25, 2025 Serie C
Guarani vs Confianca
1:0
Oct 22, 2021 Serie B
Guarani vs Confianca
1:2
Jul 16, 2021 Serie B
Confianca vs Guarani
1:4
Dec 16, 2020 Serie B
Guarani vs Confianca
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Confianca Compare

Top Goalscorer Maikon Aquino
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Guarani Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Confianca 31 / 100
Guarani 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Confianca Guarani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Confianca found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

Guarani let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Confianca remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Confianca VS Guarani
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Confianca

(Home)
16 Aug
Confianca
1 : 1
Maringa FC
10 Aug
Paysandu PA
2 : 1
Confianca
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
12 Jul
Botafogo PB
2 : 0
Confianca
04 Jul
Confianca
1 : 2
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
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Guarani

(Away)
17 Aug
Guarani
2 : 2
Ypiranga FC
10 Aug
Anapolis
2 : 1
Guarani
27 Jul
Guarani
3 : 1
Internacional de Limeira
12 Jul
Paysandu PA
3 : 2
Guarani
04 Jul
Guarani
0 : 0
Floresta EC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brusque 17 9 3 5 25:19 30
2 Internacional de Limeira 17 8 4 5 22:20 28
3 Botafogo PB 17 8 3 6 23:18 27
4 Guarani 17 7 6 4 31:19 27
5 Ferroviaria 17 7 6 4 21:14 27
6 Paysandu PA 17 8 2 7 25:26 26
7 Santa Cruz 17 7 4 6 17:14 25
8 Ypiranga FC 17 7 4 6 24:22 25
9 Amazonas 17 7 3 7 18:20 24
10 SER Caxias do Sul 17 6 6 5 17:14 24
11 Maringa FC 17 6 6 5 29:29 24
12 Floresta EC 17 6 6 5 18:19 24
13 Maranhao 17 6 6 5 14:15 24
14 Figueirense 17 6 6 5 17:21 24
15 Ituano 17 6 4 7 18:18 22
16 Volta Redonda 17 6 3 8 12:21 21
17 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 17 4 6 7 18:19 18
18 Itabaiana 17 4 5 8 13:21 17
19 Anapolis 17 4 3 10 15:21 15
20 Confianca 17 3 4 10 11:18 13
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)