Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Confianca vs Guarany SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Maikon Aquino

AI Match Summary

Confianca in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Confianca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Confianca
30%
Draws
47%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarany SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Confianca have won more games recently than Guarany SE.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Confianca have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Confianca Clean Sheet 68%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Confianca Guarany SE
Matches Played 49 30
Wins 17 11
Draws 11 7
Losses 21 12
Goals Scored 1.08 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.02 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.22 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Sergipano
Confianca vs Guarany SE
1:0
Feb 5, 2026 Sergipano
Confianca vs Guarany SE
1:0
Jan 13, 2025 Sergipano
Confianca vs Guarany SE
5:1
Jan 31, 2019 Sergipano
Confianca vs Guarany SE
5:0
Jan 26, 2016 Sergipano
Confianca vs Guarany SE
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Confianca Compare

Top Goalscorer Maikon Aquino
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.94
Avg xA / game 0.61

Guarany SE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Confianca 41 / 100
Guarany SE 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Confianca Guarany SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Confianca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guarany SE conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Confianca's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 49 recent games.

Guarany SE's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Confianca VS Guarany SE
0.63 Goals Scored 0.8
1 Goals Conceded 1.8
50% Over 1.5 80%
25% Over 2.5 40%
0% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Confianca

(Home)
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
22 Aug
Confianca
0 : 1
Anapolis
16 Aug
Confianca
1 : 1
Maringa FC
10 Aug
Paysandu PA
2 : 1
Confianca
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
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Guarany SE

(Away)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)