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Constancia vs Penya Independent Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Gonzalez L.

AI Match Summary

Penya Independent in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Constancia
35%
Draws
30%
Penya Independent
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Constancia lately — more wins on the board than Penya Independent.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Constancia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Penya Independent, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Constancia Clean Sheet 20%
Penya Independent Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Constancia Penya Independent
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 20 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.82 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.92 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Constancia vs Penya Independent
0:1
May 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Penya Independent vs Constancia
1:1
Mar 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Constancia vs Penya Independent
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Penya Independent vs Constancia
3:1
Jan 15, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Penya Independent vs Constancia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Constancia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.96

Penya Independent Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Constancia 32 / 100
Penya Independent 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Constancia Penya Independent

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Constancia scored in 88% of their last 34 outings.

Penya Independent let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Constancia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Constancia VS -
2.63 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Constancia

(Home)
26 Sept
Constancia
2 : 0
Alcudia
20 Sept
Cardassar
1 : 0
Constancia
13 Sept
Santanyi
1 : 1
Constancia
05 Sept
Constancia
3 : 0
Arenal
24 May
Pena Deportiva
2 : 1
Constancia
Page 1 of 7

Penya Independent

(Away)
08 Jun
Porreres
1 : 1
Penya Independent
31 May
Penya Independent
0 : 0
Porreres
24 May
Constancia
0 : 1
Penya Independent
17 May
Penya Independent
1 : 1
Constancia
11 May
Santanyi
1 : 0
Penya Independent
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Formentera 0
Porreres 3
Constancia 1
Penya Independent 2
Final
Porreres 1
Penya Independent 1