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Cook Islands U17 vs Samoa U17

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U17 2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cook Islands U17 play Samoa U17 in the OFC Championship U17 2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cook Islands U17 averaged 1.05 goals scored and 4.05 conceded. Samoa U17 averaged 1.36 goals scored and 4.36 conceded. In past meetings, Cook Islands U17 won 1, Samoa U17 won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 17, 2015 ended 1:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 3.19 for Cook Islands U17 and 2.94 for Samoa U17. This points to a Samoa U17 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Cook Islands U17
15%
Draws
51%
Samoa U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Cook Islands U17 picked up more points recently compared to Samoa U17.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.19 vs 2.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 94%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 94%
Over 3.5 Goals 56%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Cook Islands U17 Clean Sheet 10%
Samoa U17 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 85%
Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cook Islands U17 Samoa U17
Matches Played 20 14
Wins 3 3
Draws 0 1
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.05 1.36
Goals Conceded 4.05 4.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 5.00 6.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2015 OFC Championship U16
Cook Islands U17 vs Samoa U17
1:5
Jan 26, 2013 OFC Championship U16
Samoa U17 vs Cook Islands U17
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cook Islands U17 33 / 100
Samoa U17 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cook Islands U17 Samoa U17

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Samoa U17 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.2%
1.14
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cook Islands U17 attacking → ← attacking Samoa U17

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cook Islands U17 scored in 45% of their last 20 games.

Samoa U17 let in goals in 93% of their last 14 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Cook Islands U17 went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Samoa U17 lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 10
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
5.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 6.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1New Zealand U17550029:515
2New Caledonia U17540122:812
3Papua New Guinea U1752129:57
4Fiji U17521210:127
5Samoa U1751047:223
6Cook Islands U1750052:270
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tahiti U17440029:012
2Vanuatu U17430124:39
3Solomon Islands U17420224:66
4Tonga U1741033:323
5American Samoa U1740040:390