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Coritiba vs Gremio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Coritiba Logo

Coritiba

0 - 1
FT
Gremio Logo

Gremio

Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Sub
Diego Caito In: Joao Pedro
Out: Diego Caito
40'
Tinga
59'
Sub
Pavon C. In: Enamorado J.
Out: Pavon C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between Coritiba and Gremio finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gremio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Coritiba
15%
Draws
59%
Gremio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gremio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Coritiba haven't matched Gremio's recent run of results.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Gremio taking it.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Gremio have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 15%
Gremio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coritiba Gremio
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2026 Serie A
Coritiba vs Gremio
0:1
Apr 26, 2026 Serie A
Gremio vs Coritiba
1:0
Nov 1, 2023 Serie A
Coritiba vs Gremio
1:2
Jun 25, 2023 Serie A
Gremio vs Coritiba
5:1
Jan 31, 2021 Serie A
Coritiba vs Gremio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coritiba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gremio Compare

Top Goalscorer Braithwaite M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coritiba 27 / 100
Gremio 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coritiba Gremio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Coritiba's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Gremio has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Coritiba stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Coritiba VS Gremio
0.88 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Coritiba

(Home)
04 Nov
Internacional
1 : 0
Coritiba
31 Oct
Coritiba
2 : 0
Vitoria
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1
Gremio
17 Oct
Atletico-MG
1 : 0
Coritiba
12 Oct
Coritiba
1 : 1
Botafogo RJ
Page 1 of 6

Gremio

(Away)
04 Nov
Flamengo RJ
3 : 1
Gremio
01 Nov
Gremio
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0
Athletico-PR
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1
Gremio
18 Oct
Gremio
2 : 4
Cruzeiro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21 10 3 62:23 73
3 Cruzeiro 33 17 6 10 52:46 57
4 Fluminense 33 15 9 9 52:42 54
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 33 14 11 8 48:42 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 33 10 8 15 35:48 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 34 6 11 17 37:57 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)