Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Coritiba vs Mirassol

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Denilson
27'
Daniel Borges
34'
Thiago Santos

AI Match Summary

The Serie A Betano game between Coritiba and Mirassol finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mirassol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Coritiba
30%
Draws
37%
Mirassol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mirassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Mirassol carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Coritiba are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Mirassol have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 68%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coritiba Mirassol
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.3 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Mirassol
1:2
Mar 18, 2026 Serie A Betano
Mirassol vs Coritiba
0:1
Nov 6, 2024 Serie B
Mirassol vs Coritiba
4:1
Jul 20, 2024 Serie B
Coritiba vs Mirassol
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coritiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Rocha
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Mirassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Silva
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruno Santos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coritiba 68 / 100
Mirassol 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coritiba Mirassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Coritiba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mirassol has conceded goals in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Attacking prowess: Coritiba scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Coritiba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Coritiba VS Mirassol
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Coritiba

(Home)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3
Coritiba
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1
Corinthians
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Mirassol

(Away)
19 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 0
Botafogo RJ
13 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 2
Vitoria
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
02 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 0
Mirassol
30 Aug
Mirassol
1 : 1
Palmeiras
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 27 17 6 4 53:22 57
2 Palmeiras 27 16 8 3 47:21 56
3 Athletico-PR 27 13 7 7 41:31 46
4 Bahia 27 12 10 5 42:33 46
5 Fluminense 27 12 9 6 41:35 45
6 Cruzeiro 27 12 6 9 39:39 42
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 36:32 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 41:40 38
9 Coritiba 27 10 8 9 37:38 38
10 Bragantino 26 10 6 10 32:29 36
11 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
12 Sao Paulo 26 9 6 11 31:30 33
13 Vitoria 27 9 6 12 27:39 33
14 Corinthians 27 8 8 11 28:29 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Gremio 27 7 7 13 30:38 28
17 Vasco 26 7 7 12 29:41 28
18 Internacional 27 6 10 11 30:35 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)