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Coritiba vs Mirassol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Coritiba Logo

Coritiba

1 - 2
FT
Mirassol Logo

Mirassol

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Denilson
27'
Daniel Borges
34'
Thiago Santos
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between Coritiba and Mirassol finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mirassol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Coritiba
20%
Draws
51%
Mirassol
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mirassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Mirassol carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Mirassol are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Mirassol have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 10%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Coritiba Mirassol
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 9
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.07 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie A
Coritiba vs Mirassol
1:2
Mar 18, 2026 Serie A
Mirassol vs Coritiba
0:1
Nov 6, 2024 Serie B
Mirassol vs Coritiba
4:1
Jul 20, 2024 Serie B
Coritiba vs Mirassol
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Coritiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Rocha
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Mirassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Silva
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruno Santos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Coritiba 26 / 100
Mirassol 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Coritiba Mirassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mirassol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mirassol has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Attacking prowess: Coritiba scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Coritiba stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Coritiba VS Mirassol
1 Goals Scored 1.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Coritiba

(Home)
04 Nov
Internacional
1 : 0
Coritiba
31 Oct
Coritiba
2 : 0
Vitoria
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1
Gremio
17 Oct
Atletico-MG
1 : 0
Coritiba
12 Oct
Coritiba
1 : 1
Botafogo RJ
Page 1 of 6

Mirassol

(Away)
03 Nov
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 2
Mirassol
30 Oct
Corinthians
2 : 0
Mirassol
24 Oct
Mirassol
1 : 1
Sao Paulo
16 Oct
Mirassol
2 : 0
Internacional
11 Oct
Bahia
1 : 0
Mirassol
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 33 20 10 3 56:22 70
3 Cruzeiro 33 17 6 10 52:46 57
4 Fluminense 33 15 9 9 52:42 54
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 33 14 11 8 48:42 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 33 10 8 15 35:48 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 33 6 11 16 36:51 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)