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Correcaminos vs Venados FC

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Marte R. Gómez
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Correcaminos play Venados FC in the Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Correcaminos averaged 1.1 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. Venados FC averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. In past meetings, Correcaminos won 2, Venados FC won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Correcaminos and 1.63 for Venados FC. This points to a Venados FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Correcaminos
22%
Draws
48%
Venados FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Venados FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Correcaminos picked up more points recently compared to Venados FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
Correcaminos Clean Sheet 14%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Correcaminos Venados FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 7 7
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.87
Goals Conceded 2.3 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Correcaminos
0:1
Sep 27, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Correcaminos vs Venados FC
3:6
Mar 21, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Correcaminos vs Venados FC
1:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Correcaminos
5:1
Mar 24, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Correcaminos vs Venados FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Correcaminos Compare

Top Goalscorer Velazquez H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martinez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Venados FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Calero J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Guzman W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Correcaminos 30 / 100
Venados FC 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Correcaminos Venados FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Venados FC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Correcaminos attacking → ← attacking Venados FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Correcaminos scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Venados FC let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Correcaminos went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Venados FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 37
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atlante1493235:1030
2Cancun1493225:730
3Jaiba Brava1486024:1530
4Irapuato1465323:1923
5Zacatecas Mineros1456326:2421
6Leones Negros1463519:1721
7Club Atletico Morelia1454519:2119
8Tepatitlan de Morelos1446421:1618
9Venados FC1453629:3018
10Atletico La Paz1445525:3017
11Tapatio1443720:1815
12Tlaxcala1435614:2714
13Alebrijes de Oaxaca1434716:2513
14Correcaminos1424816:3510
15Dorados de Sinaloa1412118:265