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Corticella vs Sammaurese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Merlonghi M.
90'
Cavallini E.
90' Event
Maltoni S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Sammaurese advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Corticella
22%
Draws
60%
Sammaurese
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Sammaurese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Sammaurese haven't matched Corticella's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Sammaurese's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Corticella have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Corticella, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Corticella Clean Sheet 19%
Sammaurese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corticella Sammaurese
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 9 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 16 22
Goals Scored 0 1.38
Goals Conceded 0 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Sammaurese
0:2
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Sammaurese
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Corticella
1:3
Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Sammaurese
2:1
Nov 1, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Corticella
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corticella Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sammaurese Compare

Top Goalscorer Merlonghi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maltoni S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corticella 20 / 100
Sammaurese 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corticella Sammaurese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sammaurese has conceded goals in 80% of their last 35 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Sammaurese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Corticella found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Sammaurese
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Corticella

(Home)
18 May
Corticella
0 : 2
Sammaurese
11 May
Corticella
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
27 Apr
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Corticella
17 Apr
Corticella
0 : 3
Prato
13 Apr
Tuttocuoio
1 : 1
Corticella
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Sammaurese

(Away)
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0
Sammaurese
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0
Aquila Calcio
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Corticella0
Sammaurese2