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Corticella vs Sammaurese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Merlonghi M.
90'
Cavallini E.
90' Event
Maltoni S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Sammaurese advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Corticella
20%
Draws
40%
Sammaurese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Sammaurese haven't matched Corticella's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Sammaurese's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Corticella have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Corticella, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Corticella Clean Sheet 19%
Sammaurese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corticella Sammaurese
Matches Played 31 37
Wins 9 6
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 22
Goals Scored 1.06 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.84 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Sammaurese
0:2
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Sammaurese
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Corticella
1:3
Mar 10, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs Sammaurese
2:1
Nov 1, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Corticella
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corticella Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Sammaurese Compare

Top Goalscorer Merlonghi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maltoni S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corticella 20 / 100
Sammaurese 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corticella Sammaurese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sammaurese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sammaurese has conceded goals in 78% of their last 37 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Sammaurese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Corticella found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Sammaurese
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Corticella

(Home)
18 May
Corticella
0 : 2
Sammaurese
11 May
Corticella
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
27 Apr
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Corticella
17 Apr
Corticella
0 : 3
Prato
13 Apr
Tuttocuoio
1 : 1
Corticella
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Sammaurese

(Away)
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0
Sammaurese
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0
Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0
Aquila Calcio
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Corticella 0
Sammaurese 2