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Corticella vs San Donnino

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Corticella play San Donnino in the Serie D - Group D 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Corticella averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. San Donnino averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Corticella won 2, San Donnino won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 21, 2024 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Corticella and 1.19 for San Donnino. This points to a Corticella double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Corticella
28%
Draws
26%
San Donnino
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Corticella

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Corticella picked up more points recently compared to San Donnino.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Corticella Clean Sheet 20%
San Donnino Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corticella San Donnino
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 6 10
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.12 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs San Donnino
2:2
Dec 10, 2023 Serie D - Group D
San Donnino vs Corticella
0:2
Oct 18, 2023 Coppa Italia Serie D
San Donnino vs Corticella
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corticella Compare

Top Goalscorer Bertani R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

San Donnino Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferretti A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calmi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corticella 45 / 100
San Donnino 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corticella San Donnino

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Corticella or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Corticella attacking → ← attacking San Donnino

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Corticella scored in 55% of their last 33 games.

San Donnino let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Corticella went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

San Donnino lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 25
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Carpi32215666:3168
2Ravenna32199456:1366
3Corticella321831159:4057
4Victor San Marino32176944:3757
5Lentigione32168849:3156
6Forli FC32167948:3555
7Prato321281237:4144
8Sangiuliano City321281232:3744
9Fanfulla3211101128:3543
10Sant'Angelo321181347:4441
11Aglianese Calcio321181332:3941
12Imolese321261431:3340
13Sammaurese321141737:4837
14SCD Progresso321141727:4337
15San Donnino325101732:5825
16Certaldo32662022:5524
17Mezzolara32562123:5021
18Pistoiese00000:00