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Corumbaense vs Novoperario Prediction & H2H Stats

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Sul-Matogrossense 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Leo Gomes
41' Event
Robson
(Penalty)
86' Event
Rincon

AI Match Summary

Corumbaense in this Sul-Matogrossense 2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Corumbaense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Corumbaense
30%
Draws
29%
Novoperario
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Corumbaense have won more games recently than Novoperario.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Corumbaense taking it.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 17%
Novoperario Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Corumbaense Novoperario
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 10 5
Draws 9 6
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.23 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.23 2.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Corumbaense
1:1
Jan 24, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Novoperario
2:1
Feb 13, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Novoperario
2:0
Mar 29, 2018 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Novoperario
0:0
Mar 23, 2018 Sul-Matogrossense
Novoperario vs Corumbaense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Corumbaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Rincon
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Novoperario Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Gomes
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Corumbaense 75 / 100
Novoperario 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Corumbaense Novoperario

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Novoperario has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Corumbaense found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Corumbaense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Corumbaense VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Corumbaense

(Home)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 7

Novoperario

(Away)
02 Mar
Novoperario
0 : 0
Dourados
24 Feb
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Novoperario
21 Feb
Novoperario
1 : 1
Corumbaense
17 Feb
Novoperario
3 : 2
Ivinhema
04 Feb
Dourados
2 : 1
Novoperario
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Operario MS 8 6 2 0 14:3 20
2 Coxim 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
3 Pantanal 8 3 3 2 10:9 12
4 Costa Rica 8 3 2 3 8:7 11
5 Nautico MS 8 0 0 8 6:21 0
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 5 2 1 10:4 17
2 Aquidauanense 8 4 3 1 13:8 15
3 Corumbaense 8 2 3 3 12:13 9
4 Ivinhema 8 2 1 5 12:16 7
5 Novoperario 8 1 3 4 7:13 6
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2024 (Play Offs)