Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Cosmopolites vs Triomphe Liancourt

Haiti Haiti

Championnat National 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Cosmopolites averaging 0.7 xG at home and Triomphe Liancourt producing 0.5 xG on their travels. Triomphe Liancourt will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Cosmopolites to find a way to break them down. The stats favor a low-scoring affair. Backing Under 2.5 goals looks like the smart play here. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Cosmopolites
33%
Draws
35%
Triomphe Liancourt
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Triomphe Liancourt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Cosmopolites picked up more points recently compared to Triomphe Liancourt.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.66 vs 0.53 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Cosmopolites Clean Sheet 30%
Triomphe Liancourt Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 50%
Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cosmopolites Triomphe Liancourt
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 7
Draws 7 10
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 0.68 0.72
Goals Conceded 1.29 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.66 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

11.04.24 Championnat National
Cosmopolites vs Triomphe Liancourt
0:1
14.03.24 Championnat National
Triomphe Liancourt vs Cosmopolites
1:1
12.12.20 Championnat National
Cosmopolites vs Triomphe Liancourt
0:0
22.09.19 Championnat National
Triomphe Liancourt vs Cosmopolites
2:1
18.03.19 Championnat National
Cosmopolites vs Triomphe Liancourt
0:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Cosmopolites

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Triomphe Liancourt

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cosmopolites Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
4 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
3 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.41

Triomphe Liancourt Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
4 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
3 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.39

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Triomphe Liancourt • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Cosmopolites • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Triomphe Liancourt • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Cosmopolites • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cosmopolites 35 / 100
Triomphe Liancourt 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cosmopolites Triomphe Liancourt

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Triomphe Liancourt or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +24%
4.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Cosmopolites will likely press early to force mistakes.

Cosmopolites 59%
Triomphe Liancourt 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Triomphe Liancourt should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Cosmopolites 54%
Triomphe Liancourt 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Cosmopolites 51%
Triomphe Liancourt 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Cosmopolites to push more players wide.

Cosmopolites 56%
Triomphe Liancourt 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Cosmopolites 51%
Triomphe Liancourt 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Cosmopolites 62%
Triomphe Liancourt 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cosmopolites attacking → ← attacking Triomphe Liancourt

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cosmopolites have scored in 89% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Triomphe Liancourt concede most goals (51%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 22 shots per game, well above the league median.

Cosmopolites are unbeaten in 6 straight matches when scoring first.

Triomphe Liancourt have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Cosmopolites wants a European spot, while Triomphe Liancourt is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 31
0.66 Goals expected (xG) 0.53
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2