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Costa Rica vs Aguia Negra

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Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Sul-Matogrossense matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Costa Rica
20%
Draws
38%
Aguia Negra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Costa Rica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Costa Rica have won more games recently than Aguia Negra.
  • Model gives Costa Rica a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 20%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Costa Rica Aguia Negra
Matches Played 37 29
Wins 11 8
Draws 13 10
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Aguia Negra
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Costa Rica
1:1
Feb 16, 2020 Sul-Matogrossense
Costa Rica vs Aguia Negra
2:2
Feb 17, 2019 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Costa Rica
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Costa Rica 42 / 100
Aguia Negra 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Costa Rica Aguia Negra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Costa Rica scored in 65% of their last 37 outings.

Defensive concern: Aguia Negra conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Costa Rica stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Costa Rica VS Aguia Negra
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Costa Rica

(Home)
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
21 Feb
Bataguassu
2 : 0
Costa Rica
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
11 Feb
Operario MS
0 : 0
Costa Rica
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 8

Aguia Negra

(Away)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Naviraiense953113:918
2Operario MS945014:517
3Corumbaense934210:713
4Ivinhema933310:1112
5Bataguassu933315:1712
6Dourados924315:1410
7Clube de Regatas Aquidauana924312:1310
8Pantanal923410:159
9Costa Rica91536:108
10Aguia Negra91449:137
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)