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Covadonga vs Aviles Stadium

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Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Cid C.
77' Event
Alvarez V.
81' Event
Alvarez V.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 2 game between Covadonga and Aviles Stadium finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Covadonga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Covadonga
30%
Draws
12%
Aviles Stadium
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Covadonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Covadonga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Covadonga taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Covadonga have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 20%
Aviles Stadium Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Covadonga Aviles Stadium
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 21 4
Draws 6 13
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.4 0.45
Goals Conceded 1.03 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Aviles Stadium
4:0
Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Aviles Stadium
3:0
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Aviles Stadium vs Covadonga
0:4
Mar 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs Aviles Stadium
2:1
Oct 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Aviles Stadium vs Covadonga
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cid C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Aviles Stadium Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Covadonga 40 / 100
Aviles Stadium 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Covadonga Aviles Stadium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Covadonga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Covadonga found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (35 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Covadonga has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Aviles Stadium lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Covadonga VS Aviles Stadium
1.13 Goals Scored 0.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Covadonga

(Home)
13 Sept
Langreo
2 : 2
Covadonga
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
29 Aug
Gijon Industrial
0 : 0
Covadonga
05 Aug
Real Oviedo B
6 : 0
Covadonga
07 Jun
Covadonga
2 : 4
Caudal Deportivo
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Aviles Stadium

(Away)
13 Sept
Aviles Stadium
0 : 1
L Entregu CF
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
27 Aug
Aviles Stadium
0 : 0
Gijon Industrial
14 Aug
Aviles Stadium
0 : 1
Llanera
11 Aug
Club Siero
1 : 0
Aviles Stadium
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gijon B 3 3 0 0 6:2 9
2 Covadonga 3 2 1 0 10:2 7
3 CD Mosconia 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
4 Condal 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
5 CD Colunga 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
6 Club Siero 3 2 0 1 3:1 6
7 Caudal Deportivo 3 2 0 1 5:5 6
8 Gijon Industrial 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
9 Union Club Ceares 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
10 L Entregu CF 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
11 Praviano 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
12 Lealtad 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
13 Aviles Stadium 3 1 0 2 1:5 3
14 Langreo 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
15 Llanes 3 0 1 2 4:10 1
16 Andes CF 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
17 Astur 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
18 EI San Martin 2 0 0 2 0:6 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 (Play Offs)