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Covilha vs Caldas SC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio José Santos Pinto, Covilhã
Covilha Logo

Covilha

0 - 1
FT
Caldas SC Logo

Caldas SC

Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Niang C.
41'
Izata D.
54' Event
Chaves G.
Assist: Pio G.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Caldas SC in this Liga 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caldas SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Covilha
35%
Draws
50%
Caldas SC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caldas SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caldas SC lately — more wins on the board than Covilha.
  • 50% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Covilha Clean Sheet 21%
Caldas SC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Covilha Caldas SC
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 9
Draws 10 4
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 0.79 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Caldas SC
0:1
Apr 25, 2026 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Covilha
1:1
Feb 22, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Caldas SC
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Liga 3
Covilha vs Caldas SC
2:1
Aug 9, 2025 Liga 3
Caldas SC vs Covilha
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Covilha Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Caldas SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Chaves G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Covilha 37 / 100
Caldas SC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Covilha Caldas SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caldas SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caldas SC let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Covilha stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Covilha scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Covilha VS Caldas SC
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Covilha

(Home)
01 Nov
Covilha
0 : 1
Caldas SC
25 Oct
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 1
Covilha
10 Oct
Covilha
0 : 0
Oliveirense
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
Page 1 of 6

Caldas SC

(Away)
01 Nov
Covilha
0 : 1
Caldas SC
24 Oct
Caldas SC
3 : 3
Mafra
11 Oct
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Caldas SC
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 8 6 1 1 17:8 19
2 AD Marco 09 8 4 2 2 8:5 14
3 AD Fafe 8 3 4 1 13:7 13
4 Leca 8 4 1 3 11:9 13
5 SC Vianense 8 2 4 2 12:13 10
6 Vitoria Guimaraes B 8 2 3 3 10:10 9
7 Sao Joao de Ver 8 2 3 3 9:10 9
8 Varzim 8 3 0 5 11:13 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 8 2 2 4 8:13 8
10 Trofense 8 1 2 5 4:15 5
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 8 6 2 0 18:6 20
2 Atletico CP 8 5 2 1 17:7 17
3 Mafra 8 3 3 2 16:11 12
4 Caldas SC 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
5 Oliveirense 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
6 Santarem 8 3 1 4 9:14 10
7 Louletano 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
8 Covilha 8 1 4 3 5:8 7
9 Vitoria Sernache 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
10 Lusitano GC 8 1 3 4 6:11 6
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)