Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley

Crawley Town

4 - 2

Aston Villa U21

Our Tip

Match Events

12'

Sub

Brown R. In: Robertson J.

Out: Brown R.

19'

Dixon K.

Assist: Radcliffe B.

22'

Radcliffe B.

Assist: Forster H.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-2, with Crawley Town advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Crawley Town

15%

Draws

42%

Aston Villa U21

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Crawley Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence

Aston Villa U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
36% — that's where the model lands on Crawley Town taking it.
Aston Villa U21 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Crawley Town, who have won 3 of the last 3 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Crawley Town have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%

Crawley Town Clean Sheet 20%

Aston Villa U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Crawley Town	Aston Villa U21
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	7	12
Draws	9	4
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	0.86	1.72
Goals Conceded	1.14	1.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.37	1.21
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2025 EFL Trophy

Crawley Town vs Aston Villa U21

4:2

Nov 7, 2023 EFL Trophy

Crawley Town vs Aston Villa U21

3:2

Oct 18, 2022 EFL Trophy

Crawley Town vs Aston Villa U21

5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crawley Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Radcliffe B.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Dixon K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.05

Avg xA / game 0.69

Aston Villa U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Fortes R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.1

Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crawley Town 36 / 100

Aston Villa U21 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Crawley Town Aston Villa U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aston Villa U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Aston Villa U21 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Crawley Town scored in 46% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Crawley Town VS Aston Villa U21

0.88 Goals Scored 1.43

1 Goals Conceded 1.86

38% Over 1.5 86%

25% Over 2.5 71%

25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Crawley Town

(Home)

29 Aug

Crawley Town

0 : 2

Bristol Rovers

22 Aug

Rochdale

1 : 2

Crawley Town

15 Aug

Crawley Town

0 : 1

Crewe

08 Aug

Watford

1 : 0

Crawley Town

03 Aug

York City

0 : 2

Crawley Town

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Aston Villa U21

(Away)

28 Aug

Aston Villa U21

0 : 2

Crystal Palace U21

21 Aug

Aston Villa U21

2 : 1

Brighton U21

18 Aug

Wigan

3 : 2

Aston Villa U21

01 Aug

Shrewsbury

3 : 2

Aston Villa U21

21 Jul

Tamworth

1 : 2

Aston Villa U21

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