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Crewe vs Rochdale - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Crewe host Rochdale in the League Two. This one's hard to separate. Crewe have averaged 1.47 scored and 1.2 conceded recently, against Rochdale's 1.57 scored and 1.86 conceded. Past meetings favor Crewe slightly — 1-0-4 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 25, 2023, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.44, favoring Crewe. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Crewe
20%
Draws
42%
Rochdale
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Rochdale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Crewe lately — more wins on the board than Rochdale.
  • Model gives Crewe a 38% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Crewe Clean Sheet 16%
Rochdale Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crewe Rochdale
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.47 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2023 League Two
Crewe vs Rochdale
1:1
Jul 30, 2022 League Two
Rochdale vs Crewe
1:2
Apr 24, 2021 League One
Crewe vs Rochdale
1:1
Jan 9, 2021 League One
Rochdale vs Crewe
3:3
Feb 16, 2016 League One
Rochdale vs Crewe
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crewe 84 / 100
Rochdale 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crewe Rochdale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crewe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Crewe scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Rochdale has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Crewe stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Crewe VS Rochdale
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Crewe

(Home)
06 Oct
Blackpool
3 : 2
Crewe
03 Oct
Crewe
3 : 1
Bristol Rovers
26 Sept
Rotherham
1 : 1
Crewe
22 Sept
Crewe
4 : 1
Aston Villa U21
19 Sept
Crewe
1 : 1
Shrewsbury
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Rochdale

(Away)
06 Oct
Huddersfield
5 : 0
Rochdale
03 Oct
Rochdale
1 : 0
Swindon
26 Sept
Fleetwood Town
1 : 2
Rochdale
22 Sept
Rochdale
3 : 4
Liverpool U21
19 Sept
Rochdale
2 : 0
Oldham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11:7 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16:14 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 14:14 15
6 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13:10 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10:11 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12:12 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9:14 11
15 Newport 9 2 4 3 12:12 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13:14 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9:10 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5:6 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)