Sport Picks
Criciuma vs Caravaggio
Brazil
Copa Santa Catarina 2025 Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma 
Match Events
2'
2'
Carlos J.
75'
75'
Thales
82'
82'
Juninho
AI Match Summary
Criciuma in this Copa Santa Catarina 2025 tie, finishing 4-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Criciuma lately — more wins on the board than Caravaggio.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Criciuma have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Caravaggio, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Criciuma Clean Sheet 16%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Criciuma | Caravaggio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 28 |
| Wins | 18 | 13 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 2.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.25 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 2.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.25 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 14, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Criciuma vs Caravaggio
4:1
Sep 10, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Caravaggio vs Criciuma
0:1
Feb 12, 2025 Catarinense
Criciuma vs Caravaggio
1:2
Jun 19, 2022 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Criciuma
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Criciuma Compare
Top Goalscorer Carlos J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Thales
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Caravaggio Compare
Top Goalscorer Vitor Goncalves
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Criciuma 31 / 100
Caravaggio 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Criciuma Caravaggio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Criciuma scored in 85% of their last 33 games.
Criciuma has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Caravaggio has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Criciuma VS Caravaggio
1.13 Goals Scored 2.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Criciuma
(Home) 18 Jul
Criciuma
2 : 0 Vila Nova FC
08 Jul
Ponte Preta
1 : 2 Criciuma
04 Jul
Criciuma
1 : 0 Sport Recife
27 Jun
Criciuma
1 : 0 Sao Bernardo
23 Jun
America MG
0 : 1 Criciuma
Page 1 of 7
18 Jul
Criciuma
2 : 0 Vila Nova FC
04 Jul
Criciuma
1 : 0 Sport Recife
27 Jun
Criciuma
1 : 0 Sao Bernardo
16 Jun
Criciuma
1 : 1 Ceara
06 Jun
Criciuma
1 : 0 Londrina
Page 1 of 4
Caravaggio
(Away) 18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2 Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1 Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0 Jaragua-SC
05 Jul
CA Metropolitano
2 : 1 Caravaggio
28 Jun
Caravaggio
2 : 3 Guarani de Palhoca
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2 Caravaggio
05 Jul
CA Metropolitano
2 : 1 Caravaggio
24 Jun
Blumenau
1 : 2 Caravaggio
07 Jun
Gremio Juventus
0 : 3 Caravaggio
24 May
Tubarao
2 : 2 Caravaggio
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Figueirense | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16:6 | 14 |
| 2 | Marcilio Dias | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | 13 |
| 3 | Avai | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:16 | 4 |
| 4 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:20 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Chapecoense-SC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:6 | 7 |
| 3 | Brusque | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 4 | Concordia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:6 | 13 |
| 2 | Joinville | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Carlos Renaux | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 4 | Nacao | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2:9 | 3 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Tubarao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:6 | 8 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:11 | 6 |
| 4 | Camboriu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | 5 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2025 (Play Offs)