Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Criciuma vs Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estádio Heriberto Hülse
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Criciuma play Sao Bernardo in the Serie B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Criciuma averaged 1.58 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Sao Bernardo averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Criciuma won 2, Sao Bernardo won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 27, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Criciuma and 0.81 for Sao Bernardo. This points to a Criciuma double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Criciuma
31%
Draws
24%
Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Criciuma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Criciuma picked up more points recently compared to Sao Bernardo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Criciuma Clean Sheet 26%
Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Criciuma Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 18 9
Draws 11 8
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.58 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Serie B
Criciuma vs Sao Bernardo
1:0
May 15, 2013 Copa Betano do Brasil
Criciuma vs Sao Bernardo
3:1
May 7, 2013 Copa Betano do Brasil
Sao Bernardo vs Criciuma
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Criciuma 46 / 100
Sao Bernardo 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Criciuma Sao Bernardo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Criciuma or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Criciuma attacking → ← attacking Sao Bernardo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Criciuma scored in 85% of their last 33 games.

Sao Bernardo let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Criciuma went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Sao Bernardo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 35
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Criciuma1796220:1233
2Vila Nova FC1794425:1931
3Novorizontino1686227:1430
4EC Juventude1785417:829
5Fortaleza1684420:1628
6Operario-PR1684420:1728
7Sao Bernardo1674521:1425
8Sport Recife1667318:1225
9Goias1673616:2124
10Cuiaba1658312:923
11Athletic Club1657416:1622
12Nautico1663721:1921
13Atletico GO1656518:1921
14Botafogo SP1654717:1519
15CRB1654724:2919
16Londrina1653824:2418
17Ceara1645715:2017
18Avai1634916:2413
19Ponte Preta17221311:338
20America MG16131210:276