Sport Picks
Match Events
14'
14'
Bilic S.
17'
17'
Perisic I.
22'
22'
Perisic I.
AI Match Summary
The UEFA Nations League game between Croatia and Spain finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spain.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
14%
15%
71%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spain
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
71%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Spain come out ahead of Croatia on wins alone.
- 71% — that's where the model lands on Spain taking it.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Spain have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Croatia Clean Sheet 10%
Spain Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Croatia | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 37 |
| Wins | 17 | 30 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 1 |
| Goals Scored | 1.81 | 2.51 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.44 | 0.78 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 6, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Croatia vs Spain
1:2
Sep 29, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs Croatia
4:1
Jun 15, 2024 Euro
Spain vs Croatia
3:0
Jun 18, 2023 UEFA Nations League
Croatia vs Spain
0:1
Jun 28, 2021 Euro
Croatia vs Spain
3:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Croatia Compare
Top Goalscorer Perisic I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Spain Compare
Top Goalscorer Merino M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Croatia 10 / 100
Spain 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Croatia Spain
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Spain Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Croatia scored in 84% of their last 32 outings.
Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.
Spain let in goals in 49% of their last 37 matches.
Croatia went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Croatia VS Spain
1.38 Goals Scored 2
2.5 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Croatia
(Home) 06 Oct
Croatia
1 : 2 Spain
03 Oct
Croatia
0 : 7 England
29 Sept
Spain
4 : 1 Croatia
26 Sept
Czech Republic
1 : 2 Croatia
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1 Croatia
Page 1 of 7
06 Oct
Croatia
1 : 2 Spain
03 Oct
Croatia
0 : 7 England
27 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1 Ghana
07 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1 Slovenia
02 Jun
Croatia
0 : 2 Belgium
Page 1 of 4
Spain
(Away) 06 Oct
Croatia
1 : 2 Spain
03 Oct
Spain
3 : 1 Czech Republic
29 Sept
Spain
4 : 1 Croatia
26 Sept
England
2 : 3 Spain
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0 Argentina
Page 1 of 8
06 Oct
Croatia
1 : 2 Spain
26 Sept
England
2 : 3 Spain
14 Jul
France
0 : 2 Spain
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1 Spain
27 Jun
Uruguay
0 : 1 Spain
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:14 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
