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Crusaders vs Lurgan Celtic

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

Irish League Cup 2019/2020 Seaview, Belfast
Tue, Aug 27, 2019
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Irish League Cup 2019/2020. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Lurgan Celtic have shipped 2.97 goals a game lately, while Crusaders have conceded 1.59 and scored 1.56. Past meetings favor Crusaders slightly — 2-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 27, 2019, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.67 xG vs 0.94) point toward Crusaders. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Crusaders
15%
Draws
21%
Lurgan Celtic
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Crusaders

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Lurgan Celtic haven't matched Crusaders's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Crusaders have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Crusaders, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Crusaders have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Crusaders Clean Sheet 20%
Lurgan Celtic Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crusaders Lurgan Celtic
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 15 3
Draws 6 5
Losses 11 23
Goals Scored 1.56 0.84
Goals Conceded 1.59 2.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 27, 2019 Irish League Cup
Crusaders vs Lurgan Celtic
0:0
Jul 26, 2016 Club Friendly
Crusaders vs Lurgan Celtic
5:0
Jan 16, 2007 Irish Cup
Crusaders vs Lurgan Celtic
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crusaders 31 / 100
Lurgan Celtic 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crusaders Lurgan Celtic

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crusaders Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Crusaders's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lurgan Celtic conceded in 93% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Crusaders has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Crusaders VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Crusaders

(Home)
15 Sept
Crusaders
3 : 0
Dungannon
12 Sept
Crusaders
1 : 2
Limavady
05 Sept
Coleraine
4 : 1
Crusaders
29 Aug
Glentoran
1 : 2
Crusaders
22 Aug
Crusaders
3 : 2
Portadown
Page 1 of 7

Lurgan Celtic

(Away)
27 Aug
Crusaders
:
Lurgan Celtic
17 Aug
Hanover
:
Lurgan Celtic
03 Nov
Lurgan Celtic
2 : 3
Portstewart
29 Sept
Lurgan Celtic
:
St. Patricks Young
28 Aug
Ballinamallard
4 : 1
Lurgan Celtic
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Ballymena -
TBD -
TBD -
Newington FC -
Portadown -
TBD -
TBD -
Dollingstown -
Limavady -
TBD -
TBD -
Ards -
Lurgan Celtic -
TBD -
TBD -
Crusaders -
Glenavon -
TBD -
TBD -
Portstewart -
Loughgall 2
Banbridge 1
TBD -
Newry City -
Institute -
TBD -
Queens University 1
PSNI 3
Warrenpoint -
TBD -
Armagh 0
Harland & Wolff 6
Dungannon -
TBD -
TBD -
Dergview -
Ballinamallard -
TBD -
TBD -
Linfield -
Cliftonville -
TBD -
TBD -
Moyola -
Carrick Rangers -
TBD -
TBD -
Bangor FC -
Larne -
TBD -
TBD -
Lisburn Distillery -
Tobermore -
TBD -
TBD -
Dundela -
Coleraine -
TBD -
TBD -
Annagh -
Ballyclare 7
Knockbreda 1
TBD -
Glentoran -
1/16-finals
Ballymena 3
Newington FC 0
Portadown 1
Dollingstown 2
Limavady 4
Ards 2
Lurgan Celtic -
Crusaders -
Glenavon 4
Portstewart 1
Loughgall 0
Newry City 1
Institute 3
PSNI 2
Warrenpoint 2
Harland & Wolff 4
Dungannon 2
Dergview 0
Ballinamallard 4
Linfield 5
Cliftonville 3
Moyola 1
Carrick Rangers 3
Bangor FC 5
Larne 3
Lisburn Distillery 0
Tobermore 0
Dundela 6
Coleraine 4
Annagh 0
Ballyclare 1
Glentoran 5
1/8-finals
Ballymena 6
Dollingstown 0
Limavady 1
Crusaders 4
Glenavon 2
Newry City 3
Institute 3
Harland & Wolff 0
Dungannon 0
Linfield 4
Cliftonville 3
Bangor FC 2
Larne 1
Dundela 3
Coleraine 2
Glentoran 1
Quarter-finals
Ballymena 1
Crusaders 2
Newry City 0
Institute 1
Linfield 1
Cliftonville 0
Dundela 1
Coleraine 5
Semi-finals
Crusaders 2
Institute 0
Linfield 0
Coleraine 3
Final
Crusaders 1
Coleraine 2