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Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Ibanez N.
Assist: Paradela J.
37'
Barbosa D.
38' Event
Fernandez G.
Assist: Ibanez N.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga MX matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Cruz Azul
20%
Draws
47%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toluca lately — more wins on the board than Cruz Azul.
  • Win probability leans Toluca's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Liga MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Cruz Azul Clean Sheet 10%
Toluca Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cruz Azul Toluca
Matches Played 36 37
Wins 18 20
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.78 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Toluca
3:3
Jul 26, 2026 Campeón de Campeones
Toluca vs Cruz Azul
1:3
Feb 7, 2026 Liga MX
Toluca vs Cruz Azul
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs Toluca
1:0
Apr 20, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Cruz Azul
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cruz Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ibanez N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Vega A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cruz Azul 22 / 100
Toluca 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cruz Azul Toluca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruz Azul's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Toluca let in goals in 65% of their last 37 matches.

Cruz Azul has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cruz Azul VS Toluca
1.5 Goals Scored 2.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cruz Azul

(Home)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
17 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Cruz Azul
4 : 3
Club America
06 Sept
Cruz Azul
1 : 0
Santos Laguna
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Toluca

(Away)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3
Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 23:12 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
4 Queretaro 9 5 2 2 13:8 17
5 Club Leon 10 5 2 3 14:11 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 16:17 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14:13 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 11:12 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 16:14 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 15:11 12
12 UNAM Pumas 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 14:18 12
14 Atlante 10 2 5 3 12:15 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10:13 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10:15 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
18 Juarez 10 1 0 9 7:25 3
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)