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Cruz Azul W vs Toluca W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Centenario, Cuernavaca
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cruz Azul W host Toluca W in the Liga MX Women. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Cruz Azul W at 1.94 goals for, 1.52 against; Toluca W at 2.25 for, 1.66 against. Head-to-head, Cruz Azul W have won 3 to Toluca W's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 0:4. xG projections (1.44 - 2.44) back Toluca W to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Cruz Azul W
15%
Draws
42%
Toluca W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cruz Azul W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Cruz Azul W haven't matched Toluca W's recent run of results.
  • Cruz Azul W are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Liga MX Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Cruz Azul W Clean Sheet 10%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cruz Azul W Toluca W
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 16 20
Draws 5 4
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.94 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Cruz Azul W
0:4
Aug 26, 2025 Liga MX Women
Cruz Azul W vs Toluca W
4:3
Mar 13, 2025 Liga MX Women
Cruz Azul W vs Toluca W
2:1
Oct 12, 2024 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Cruz Azul W
3:1
Apr 22, 2024 Liga MX Women
Cruz Azul W vs Toluca W
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cruz Azul W 34 / 100
Toluca W 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cruz Azul W Toluca W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Cruz Azul W's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Toluca W has conceded goals in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Cruz Azul W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cruz Azul W VS Toluca W
1 Goals Scored 2.38
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cruz Azul W

(Home)
04 Oct
Necaxa W
0 : 2
Cruz Azul W
26 Sept
Cruz Azul W
0 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas W
22 Sept
Santos Laguna W
2 : 0
Cruz Azul W
12 Sept
Cruz Azul W
3 : 2
UNAM Pumas W
06 Sept
Queretaro W
0 : 2
Cruz Azul W
Page 1 of 7

Toluca W

(Away)
05 Oct
Pachuca W
1 : 2
Toluca W
29 Sept
Necaxa W
0 : 4
Toluca W
22 Sept
Toluca W
2 : 7
Tigres UANL W
15 Sept
Toluca W
6 : 0
Club Tijuana W
06 Sept
Monterrey W
5 : 1
Toluca W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monterrey W 10 9 0 1 39:13 27
2 Tigres UANL W 10 8 1 1 32:10 25
3 Toluca W 10 7 1 2 25:16 22
4 Juarez W 10 7 0 3 14:7 21
5 Santos Laguna W 10 5 0 5 13:20 15
6 Cruz Azul W 10 5 0 5 13:21 15
7 Club Leon W 9 4 0 5 15:17 12
8 Atlante W 10 2 1 7 6:13 7
9 Queretaro W 10 2 0 8 10:22 6
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America W 10 8 1 1 45:11 25
2 Guadalajara Chivas W 10 7 0 3 21:11 21
3 Atletico San Luis W 10 6 1 3 23:16 19
4 UNAM Pumas W 10 4 1 5 18:17 13
5 Atlas W 9 3 3 3 10:17 12
6 Pachuca W 10 3 1 6 14:15 10
7 Club Tijuana W 10 3 0 7 13:24 9
8 Puebla W 10 1 0 9 13:39 3
9 Necaxa W 10 0 0 10 3:38 0
Promotion - Liga MX Women (Apertura - Play Offs)