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Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Wed, Nov 18, 2026
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cruzeiro host Palmeiras in the Serie A. Little to choose between these two on current form. Palmeiras have shipped 0.72 goals a game lately, while Cruzeiro have conceded 1.1 and scored 1.67. Head-to-head, Cruzeiro have won 1 to Palmeiras's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.38 - 1.50) back Palmeiras to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Cruzeiro
20%
Draws
38%
Palmeiras
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cruzeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Cruzeiro have managed 1.67 goals a game lately — Palmeiras are scoring more at 1.75.
  • Win probability leans Palmeiras's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Cruzeiro Clean Sheet 16%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cruzeiro Palmeiras
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 17 17
Draws 6 12
Losses 7 3
Goals Scored 1.67 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie A
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie A
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
0:0
Jun 1, 2025 Serie A
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
2:1
Dec 5, 2024 Serie A
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
1:2
Jul 21, 2024 Serie A
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cruzeiro 28 / 100
Palmeiras 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cruzeiro Palmeiras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmeiras Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Cruzeiro scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Cruzeiro stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Palmeiras has conceded goals in 47% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cruzeiro VS Palmeiras
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cruzeiro

(Home)
06 Nov
Cruzeiro
3 : 2
Bahia
29 Oct
Atletico-MG
0 : 1
Cruzeiro
23 Oct
Cruzeiro
1 : 0
Remo
18 Oct
Gremio
2 : 4
Cruzeiro
13 Oct
Bragantino
4 : 2
Cruzeiro
Page 1 of 6

Palmeiras

(Away)
08 Nov
Vasco
2 : 2
Palmeiras
05 Nov
Palmeiras
6 : 1
Remo
01 Nov
Palmeiras
1 : 0
Vasco
28 Oct
Santos
0 : 0
Palmeiras
24 Oct
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Bragantino
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21 10 3 62:23 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18 6 10 55:48 60
4 Fluminense 34 16 9 9 55:42 57
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 34 14 11 9 50:45 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 34 10 8 16 35:51 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 34 6 11 17 37:57 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)