Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Crvena zvezda vs Aarau Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Arnautovic M.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Elsnik T.
46'
Sub
Filet E. In: Khaled A.
Out: Filet E.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Crvena zvezda and Aarau finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Crvena zvezda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Crvena zvezda
20%
Draws
19%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Crvena zvezda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Crvena zvezda come out ahead of Aarau on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Crvena zvezda's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Crvena zvezda Clean Sheet 16%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crvena zvezda Aarau
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 12
Draws 5 7
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 2.04 1.79
Goals Conceded 1 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Club Friendly
Crvena zvezda vs Aarau
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crvena zvezda Compare

Top Goalscorer Elsnik T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kostov V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Frokaj L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crvena zvezda 84 / 100
Aarau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crvena zvezda Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Crvena zvezda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Crvena zvezda found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Aarau let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Crvena zvezda has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Crvena zvezda VS Aarau
1.88 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Crvena zvezda

(Home)
20 Sept
Crvena zvezda
3 : 0
Radnicki Nis
17 Sept
Zeleznicar Pancevo
1 : 2
Crvena zvezda
13 Sept
IMT Novi Beograd
0 : 1
Crvena zvezda
10 Sept
Radnik Surdulica
0 : 0
Crvena zvezda
06 Sept
Crvena zvezda
2 : 1
Partizan
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
Page 1 of 6