Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Crvena zvezda vs Aarau

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Arnautovic M.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Elsnik T.
46'
Sub
Filet E. In: Khaled A.
Out: Filet E.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Crvena zvezda and Aarau finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Crvena zvezda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Crvena zvezda
6%
Draws
4%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Crvena zvezda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Crvena zvezda come out ahead of Aarau on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Crvena zvezda's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Crvena zvezda Clean Sheet 20%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crvena zvezda Aarau
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 20 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 2 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Club Friendly
Crvena zvezda vs Aarau
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crvena zvezda Compare

Top Goalscorer Elsnik T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kostov V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Frokaj L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crvena zvezda 85 / 100
Aarau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crvena zvezda Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CRV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Crvena zvezda found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Defensive concern: Aarau conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Crvena zvezda has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Crvena zvezda VS Aarau
2 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Crvena zvezda

(Home)
29 Jul
Crvena zvezda
5 : 0
Larne
26 Jul
Crvena zvezda
3 : 1
Vojvodina
21 Jul
Larne
0 : 4
Crvena zvezda
17 Jul
Crvena zvezda
5 : 0
Macva Sabac
12 Jul
Zenit St Petersburg
3 : 1
Crvena zvezda
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Aarau

(Away)
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
30 Jun
Aarau
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
21 May
Grasshoppers
2 : 1
Aarau
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