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Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

EFL Cup Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace Logo

Crystal Palace

3 - 0
FT
Middlesbrough Logo

Middlesbrough

Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Larsen J.
Assist: Mingueza O.
46'
Sub
Byram S. In: Neto Borges
Out: Byram S.
53' Event
Larsen J.
Assist: Chilwell B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Crystal Palace
35%
Draws
45%
Middlesbrough
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Middlesbrough

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Middlesbrough haven't matched Crystal Palace's recent run of results.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Middlesbrough taking it.
  • Crystal Palace have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Crystal Palace, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Crystal Palace here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Crystal Palace Clean Sheet 14%
Middlesbrough Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Crystal Palace Middlesbrough
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 3 12
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.52 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.89 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 EFL Cup
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough
3:0
Oct 31, 2018 EFL Cup
Middlesbrough vs Crystal Palace
1:0
Feb 25, 2017 Premier League
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough
1:0
Sep 10, 2016 Premier League
Middlesbrough vs Crystal Palace
1:2
Feb 16, 2013 Championship
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Crystal Palace Compare

Top Goalscorer Larsen J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kamada D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Middlesbrough Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Crystal Palace 23 / 100
Middlesbrough 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Crystal Palace Middlesbrough

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Middlesbrough Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Crystal Palace scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Middlesbrough's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Crystal Palace stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Crystal Palace VS Middlesbrough
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Crystal Palace

(Home)
18 Oct
Brighton
5 : 0
Crystal Palace
15 Oct
Lyon
3 : 2
Crystal Palace
11 Oct
Crystal Palace
3 : 1
Nottingham
03 Oct
Crystal Palace
0 : 2
Bristol City
20 Sept
Leeds
0 : 0
Crystal Palace
Page 1 of 6

Middlesbrough

(Away)
17 Oct
Middlesbrough
2 : 2
Cardiff
13 Oct
Stoke City
2 : 3
Middlesbrough
10 Oct
Middlesbrough
1 : 0
Wolves
19 Sept
Birmingham
2 : 2
Middlesbrough
15 Sept
Middlesbrough
2 : 2
Millwall
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City -
Peterborough -
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -