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CSKA Moscow vs FK Rostov - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

Russian Cup VEB Arena, Moscow
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. FK Rostov have shipped 1.28 goals a game lately, while CSKA Moscow have conceded 1.38 and scored 1.38. Head-to-head, CSKA Moscow have won 1 to FK Rostov's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 1, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.31) point toward CSKA Moscow. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
CSKA Moscow
15%
Draws
32%
FK Rostov
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CSKA Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Rostov have managed 1.14 goals a game lately — CSKA Moscow are scoring more at 1.38.
  • CSKA Moscow are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor CSKA Moscow, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
CSKA Moscow Clean Sheet 68%
FK Rostov Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CSKA Moscow FK Rostov
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 10 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2026 Russian Cup
FK Rostov vs CSKA Moscow
2:0
Aug 8, 2026 Premier League
CSKA Moscow vs FK Rostov
0:0
Apr 21, 2026 Premier League
CSKA Moscow vs FK Rostov
1:1
Feb 18, 2026 Club Friendly
CSKA Moscow vs FK Rostov
3:1
Sep 14, 2025 Premier League
FK Rostov vs CSKA Moscow
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CSKA Moscow 95 / 100
FK Rostov 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CSKA Moscow FK Rostov

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CSKA Moscow Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CSKA Moscow scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

FK Rostov has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: CSKA Moscow stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CSKA Moscow VS FK Rostov
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CSKA Moscow

(Home)
04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1
Arsenal Tula
27 Sept
CSKA Moscow
1 : 3
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
17 Sept
Dynamo Makhachkala
1 : 3
CSKA Moscow
12 Sept
CSKA Moscow
1 : 1
Rubin Kazan
05 Sept
Zenit St Petersburg
1 : 2
CSKA Moscow
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FK Rostov

(Away)
09 Oct
FK Rostov
1 : 0
Akron Togliatti
03 Oct
FK Rostov
0 : 3
Krasnodar
17 Sept
FK Rostov
0 : 3
Dynamo Moscow
13 Sept
Spartak Moscow
3 : 0
FK Rostov
05 Sept
FK Rostov
3 : 1
Fakel Voronezh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spartak Moscow 3 2 0 1 9:3 7
2 Rubin Kazan 3 2 0 1 2:7 4
3 Orenburg 3 1 0 2 6:7 4
4 Rodina Moscow 3 1 0 2 7:7 3
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Krasnodar 3 3 0 0 3:2 7
2 Dynamo Moscow 3 2 0 1 4:1 6
3 Akhmat Grozny 3 1 0 2 3:5 4
4 Fakel Voronezh 3 0 0 3 2:4 1
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zenit St Petersburg 3 3 0 0 4:0 8
2 Krylya Sovetov Samara 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
3 Baltika 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
4 Dynamo Makhachkala 3 0 0 3 2:6 1
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Rostov 3 3 0 0 7:0 9
2 Akron Togliatti 3 2 0 1 1:4 5
3 CSKA Moscow 3 1 0 2 1:4 2
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 0 0 3 1:2 2
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)