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Cuiaba vs Sorriso EC

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá
Cuiaba Logo

Cuiaba

4 - 0
FT
Sorriso EC Logo

Sorriso EC

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-0. This leg finished 4-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Cuiaba
20%
Draws
23%
Sorriso EC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cuiaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Sorriso EC haven't matched Cuiaba's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Cuiaba a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Cuiaba have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Cuiaba, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Cuiaba Clean Sheet 20%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cuiaba Sorriso EC
Matches Played 33 13
Wins 13 6
Draws 12 2
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.27 2.23
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Cuiaba vs Sorriso EC
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cuiaba 76 / 100
Sorriso EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cuiaba Sorriso EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cuiaba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Cuiaba scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Sorriso EC let in goals in 69% of their last 13 matches.

Solid form: Cuiaba remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cuiaba VS Sorriso EC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.33
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Cuiaba

(Home)
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
13 Sept
Novorizontino
1 : 1
Cuiaba
13 Sept
Campo Novo
0 : 2
Cuiaba
08 Sept
Cuiaba
3 : 0
Athletic Club
04 Sept
Criciuma
2 : 0
Cuiaba
Page 1 of 7

Sorriso EC

(Away)
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
21 May
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cacerense
17 May
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 1
Sorriso EC
01 May
Sorriso EC
9 : 0
Campo Novo
Page 1 of 3

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Várzea Grande EC 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
2 Uirapuru 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Chapada 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 Uniao Rondonopolis 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Santa Cruz MT 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
2 Cacerense 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Campo Novo 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
4 Sorriso EC 2 0 0 2 1:6 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)