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Cumbaya vs Vinotinto

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cumbaya play Vinotinto in the Serie B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cumbaya averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Vinotinto averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Cumbaya won 0, Vinotinto won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 4, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Cumbaya and 1.38 for Vinotinto. This points to a Cumbaya double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Cumbaya
28%
Draws
33%
Vinotinto
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Cumbaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Cumbaya picked up more points recently compared to Vinotinto.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Cumbaya Clean Sheet 17%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 19%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cumbaya Vinotinto
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 4, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Cumbaya
1:1
Apr 2, 2026 Serie B
Cumbaya vs Vinotinto
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cumbaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Vinotinto Compare

Top Goalscorer Lugo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cumbaya 39 / 100
Vinotinto 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cumbaya Vinotinto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cumbaya or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cumbaya attacking → ← attacking Vinotinto

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cumbaya scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Vinotinto let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Cumbaya went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vinotinto lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 34
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nueve de Octubre1484218:1028
2Atletico FC1568117:1226
3Independiente Juniors1566317:1124
4CD Cuenca Juniors1565417:1823
5Vinotinto1555520:1320
6San Antonio1547418:1519
7Cumbaya1546518:1618
8Dep. Santo Domingo1556412:1018
9LDU Portoviejo1453613:1818
10Gualaceo1565413:1017
1122 de Julio153398:216
12EL Nacional1504119:261