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Stadium Background

Curacao vs Canada

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup Shell Energy Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Curacao play Canada in the Gold Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Curacao averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Canada averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. In past meetings, Curacao won 0, Canada won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 21, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Curacao and 1.81 for Canada. This points to a Canada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Curacao
26%
Draws
40%
Canada
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Curacao picked up more points recently compared to Canada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Curacao Clean Sheet 11%
Canada Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Curacao Canada
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.9 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2025 Gold Cup
Curacao vs Canada
1:1
Mar 26, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Curacao vs Canada
0:2
Jun 10, 2022 CONCACAF Nations League
Canada vs Curacao
4:0
Jun 13, 2017 Friendly International
Canada vs Curacao
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Curacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Antonisse J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer Saliba N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Curacao 33 / 100
Canada 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Curacao Canada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canada or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Curacao attacking → ← attacking Canada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Curacao scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Canada let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Curacao went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Canada lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 53
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mexico32105:27
2Costa Rica32106:47
3Dominican Republic30123:51
4Suriname30123:61
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Canada32109:17
2Honduras32014:76
3Curacao30212:32
4El Salvador30120:41
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Panama330010:39
2Guatemala32014:36
3Jamaica31023:63
4Guadeloupe30035:100
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1USA33008:19
2Saudi Arabia31112:24
3Trinidad & Tobago30212:72
4Haiti30122:41