Sport Picks
Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica
Chile
Liga de Ascenso Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Curicó 
Match Events
22'
22'
Cazula A.
31'
31'
Fernandez N.
42'
42'
Sub
Cubillos G. In: Maidana A.
Out: Cubillos G.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Ascenso game between Curico Unido and San Marcos de Arica finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and San Marcos de Arica come out ahead of Curico Unido on wins alone.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Liga de Ascenso form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Curico Unido have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Curico Unido Clean Sheet 68%
San Marcos de Arica Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Curico Unido | San Marcos de Arica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 27 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 12, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica
2:2
Jul 12, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica
5:3
Feb 25, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido
1:2
Aug 1, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Curico Unido
2:3
Mar 16, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
Curico Unido vs San Marcos de Arica
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Curico Unido Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandez N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Alfaro J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
San Marcos de Arica Compare
Top Goalscorer Melivilu Fuentes C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Donadell N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Curico Unido 41 / 100
San Marcos de Arica 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Curico Unido San Marcos de Arica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CUR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.
Curico Unido found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (27 games).
Curico Unido went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
San Marcos de Arica lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Curico Unido VS San Marcos de Arica
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Curico Unido
(Home) 25 Jul
Curico Unido
1 : 2 San Luis
05 Jul
Nublense
2 : 2 Curico Unido
28 Jun
Curico Unido
2 : 2 U. De Concepcion
21 Jun
Curico Unido
1 : 0 Nublense
08 Jun
Deportes Temuco
0 : 1 Curico Unido
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Curico Unido
1 : 2 San Luis
28 Jun
Curico Unido
2 : 2 U. De Concepcion
21 Jun
Curico Unido
1 : 0 Nublense
01 Jun
Curico Unido
1 : 0 Antofagasta
16 May
Curico Unido
0 : 3 S. Wanderers
Page 1 of 3
San Marcos de Arica
(Away) 26 Jul
San Marcos de Arica
2 : 0 Magallanes
06 Jul
Limache
4 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
27 Jun
San Marcos de Arica
0 : 1 Coquimbo
20 Jun
San Marcos de Arica
1 : 3 Limache
06 Jun
San Luis
1 : 0 San Marcos de Arica
Page 1 of 6
06 Jul
Limache
4 : 1 San Marcos de Arica
06 Jun
San Luis
1 : 0 San Marcos de Arica
24 May
D. Puerto Montt
0 : 2 San Marcos de Arica
12 May
Curico Unido
2 : 2 San Marcos de Arica
25 Apr
Copiapo
0 : 3 San Marcos de Arica
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 2 | S. Wanderers | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 31:18 | 29 |
| 3 | San Marcos de Arica | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21:11 | 28 |
| 4 | San Luis | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26:22 | 26 |
| 5 | D. Puerto Montt | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20:18 | 26 |
| 6 | U. Espanola | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Deportes Temuco | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26:19 | 23 |
| 8 | Antofagasta | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 24:19 | 23 |
| 9 | Copiapo | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21:23 | 23 |
| 10 | Recoleta | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 25:26 | 22 |
| 11 | Magallanes | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24:26 | 22 |
| 12 | Curico Unido | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 17:26 | 18 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 16 |
| 14 | San Felipe | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13:29 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 21:30 | 12 |
| 16 | Rangers | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 11:28 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga de Primera 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga de Primera (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda Division 2027 (Main)
