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Czarni Polaniec vs Chelmianka Chelm - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group IV
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Czarni Polaniec host Chelmianka Chelm in the III Liga - Group IV. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Czarni Polaniec at 1.67 goals for, 1.37 against; Chelmianka Chelm at 2.03 for, 0.83 against. Head-to-head, Czarni Polaniec have won 0 to Chelmianka Chelm's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on Mar 7, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.06 - 1.63) back Chelmianka Chelm to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Czarni Polaniec
35%
Draws
34%
Chelmianka Chelm
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Chelmianka Chelm carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular III Liga - Group IV form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Czarni Polaniec Clean Sheet 14%
Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Czarni Polaniec Chelmianka Chelm
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 19
Draws 6 7
Losses 9 3
Goals Scored 1.67 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.37 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Czarni Polaniec vs Chelmianka Chelm
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Czarni Polaniec
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Czarni Polaniec vs Chelmianka Chelm
2:3
Aug 31, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Czarni Polaniec
3:1
Apr 13, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Chelmianka Chelm vs Czarni Polaniec
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Czarni Polaniec 35 / 100
Chelmianka Chelm 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Czarni Polaniec Chelmianka Chelm

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelmianka Chelm Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Czarni Polaniec found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Czarni Polaniec remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Chelmianka Chelm has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Czarni Polaniec VS Chelmianka Chelm
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Czarni Polaniec

(Home)
03 Oct
Czarni Polaniec
1 : 1
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
25 Sept
Wisla II
1 : 1
Czarni Polaniec
19 Sept
Czarni Polaniec
2 : 5
Naprzod Jedrzejow
13 Sept
Moravia Morawica
1 : 2
Czarni Polaniec
05 Sept
Czarni Polaniec
3 : 0
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
Page 1 of 6

Chelmianka Chelm

(Away)
04 Oct
Hetman Zamosc
2 : 2
Chelmianka Chelm
26 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
2 : 1
Biala Podlaska
19 Sept
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
0 : 0
Chelmianka Chelm
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
05 Sept
Wisla II
0 : 2
Chelmianka Chelm
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelmianka Chelm 11 8 3 0 18:5 27
2 Wisloka Debica 11 7 1 3 16:13 22
3 Wislanie Skawina 12 6 2 4 19:12 20
4 Naprzod Jedrzejow 11 6 2 3 27:21 20
5 Czarni Polaniec 11 6 2 3 18:16 20
6 Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 11 5 5 1 16:9 20
7 Jaroslaw 12 5 2 5 28:22 17
8 Wisla II 12 4 4 4 15:17 16
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12 4 2 6 15:19 14
10 Hetman Zamosc 11 3 5 3 20:20 14
11 Busko-Zdroj 11 4 2 5 17:21 14
12 Kolbuszowa Dolna 11 2 7 2 12:12 13
13 Biala Podlaska 11 3 3 5 10:13 12
14 Korona Kielce II 11 3 2 6 23:27 11
15 Star Starachowice 11 2 5 4 13:17 11
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 11 3 2 6 10:14 11
17 Moravia Morawica 11 2 2 7 13:22 8
18 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 11 2 1 8 11:21 7
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)