Sport Picks

Chile

Copa Chile Estadio Ester Roa

D. Puerto Montt

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

D. Concepcion play D. Puerto Montt in the Copa Chile. It looks like a close match. Recently, D. Concepcion averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. D. Puerto Montt averaged 1.54 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, D. Concepcion won 1, D. Puerto Montt won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jun 29, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for D. Concepcion and 1.44 for D. Puerto Montt. This points to a D. Puerto Montt double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

D. Concepcion

31%

Draws

43%

D. Puerto Montt

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: D. Puerto Montt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

D. Concepcion picked up more points recently compared to D. Puerto Montt.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 43%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

D. Concepcion Clean Sheet 16%

D. Puerto Montt Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	D. Concepcion	D. Puerto Montt
Matches Played	36	28
Wins	11	17
Draws	8	4
Losses	17	7
Goals Scored	1.17	1.54
Goals Conceded	1.53	0.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2026 Copa Chile

D. Puerto Montt vs D. Concepcion

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Aug 11, 2024 Segunda Division

D. Concepcion vs D. Puerto Montt

Possession: 47% - 43% Cards: 4 - 3

1:0

Mar 30, 2024 Segunda Division

D. Puerto Montt vs D. Concepcion

Possession: 56% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Apr 9, 2016 Liga de Ascenso

D. Puerto Montt vs D. Concepcion

Possession: 48% - 51% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Nov 8, 2015 Liga de Ascenso

D. Concepcion vs D. Puerto Montt

Possession: 42% - 47% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

D. Concepcion 27 / 100

D. Puerto Montt 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

D. Concepcion D. Puerto Montt

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: D. Puerto Montt or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +44.6%

5.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.1%

2.70

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

D. Concepcion attacking → ← attacking D. Puerto Montt

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

D. Concepcion scored in 72% of their last 36 games.

D. Puerto Montt let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

D. Concepcion went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

D. Puerto Montt lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 55

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coquimbo	5	2	3	0	7:3	9
2	Deportes Iquique	5	2	2	1	9:5	8
3	Limache	5	2	2	1	10:8	8
4	San Marcos de Arica	5	0	1	4	2:12	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	U. Catolica	5	5	0	0	14:5	15
2	Everton	5	1	2	2	9:9	5
3	Copiapo	5	1	1	3	3:9	4
4	San Luis	5	0	3	2	7:10	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Antofagasta	5	4	1	0	11:5	13
2	La Serena	5	2	1	2	7:9	7
3	Cobreloa	5	1	2	2	6:6	5
4	Cobresal	5	0	2	3	2:6	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	U. De Chile	5	3	1	1	12:7	10
2	Union La Calera	5	2	2	1	9:6	8
3	San Felipe	5	2	1	2	6:7	7
4	S. Wanderers	5	1	0	4	7:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	4	3	0	1	10:6	9
2	O Higgins	5	2	2	1	10:7	8
3	Recoleta	4	1	1	2	3:6	4
4	U. Espanola	5	1	1	3	4:8	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nublense	5	3	1	1	8:5	10
2	Curico Unido	5	2	2	1	7:6	8
3	Rangers	5	2	0	3	4:6	6
4	U. De Concepcion	5	1	1	3	7:9	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportes Santa Cruz	5	4	1	0	9:3	13
2	A. Italiano	5	3	0	2	8:7	9
3	Palestino	5	2	1	2	9:7	7
4	Magallanes	5	0	0	5	5:14	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D. Puerto Montt	5	3	1	1	8:4	10
2	D. Concepcion	4	2	1	1	6:6	7
3	Deportes Temuco	4	1	2	1	4:5	5
4	Huachipato	5	1	0	4	6:9	3