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Dagon Port vs Ayeyawady

Myanmar Myanmar

National League Thuwunna Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This National League encounter between Dagon Port and Ayeyawady promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Dagon Port averages 2.1 goals scored and 2.7 conceded in recent matches. Ayeyawady shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Dagon Port, 3 wins for Ayeyawady, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 14.02.26 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.81 for Dagon Port and 1.81 for Ayeyawady, suggesting the primary value lies in the Ayeyawady double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Dagon Port
25%
Draws
41%
Ayeyawady
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Ayeyawady

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Dagon Port picked up more points recently compared to Ayeyawady.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Dagon Port Clean Sheet 11%
Ayeyawady Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dagon Port Ayeyawady
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 10 6
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 2.07 1.27
Goals Conceded 2.67 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

14.02.26 National League
Ayeyawady vs Dagon Port
1:0
19.09.25 National League
Dagon Port vs Ayeyawady
0:4
02.02.25 National League
Dagon Port vs Ayeyawady
2:4
14.07.24 National League
Ayeyawady vs Dagon Port
1:2
21.05.24 MNL League Cup
Ayeyawady vs Dagon Port
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Dagon Port

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Ayeyawady

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dagon Port Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Ayeyawady Compare

Top Goalscorer Kyaw K. K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mue S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dagon Port 33 / 100
Ayeyawady 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dagon Port Ayeyawady

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ayeyawady or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Dagon Port 37%
Ayeyawady 33%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Dagon Port 32%
Ayeyawady 43%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Dagon Port 34%
Ayeyawady 41%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Dagon Port 36%
Ayeyawady 39%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Dagon Port 31%
Ayeyawady 45%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Dagon Port 39%
Ayeyawady 47%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Dagon Port attacking → ← attacking Ayeyawady

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dagon Port have found the net in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Ayeyawady have conceded at least one goal in 60% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.20 goals per match.

Dagon Port remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Ayeyawady suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 36
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
2.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shan United22184066:1058
2Yangon United22183170:757
3Dagon22116539:3039
4Ispe2294935:4631
5Hantharwady United2277832:3428
6Mahar United2277839:4428
7Yadanarbon22751038:3826
8Ayeyawady22751025:2626
9Thitsar Arman2259836:3824
10Dagon Port22571044:6222
11Rakhine United22541328:5419
12Yarmanya United22131817:806