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Dagon vs Shan United

Myanmar Myanmar

National League 2025/2026 Thuwunna Stadium, Yangon
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Bo Hlaing Bo
49' Event
Lam Mang S.
52' Event
Ko Sa Aung Pyae

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025/2026 game between Dagon and Shan United finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shan United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Dagon
20%
Draws
40%
Shan United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Shan United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular National League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Shan United have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Dagon Clean Sheet 10%
Shan United Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dagon Shan United
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 16 19
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.17 2.35
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2026 National League
Dagon vs Shan United
1:3
Oct 18, 2025 National League
Shan United vs Dagon
4:0
Feb 1, 2025 National League
Dagon vs Shan United
0:0
Jul 11, 2024 National League
Shan United vs Dagon
2:1
May 26, 2024 MNL League Cup
Shan United vs Dagon
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dagon Compare

Top Goalscorer Lam Mang S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Shan United Compare

Top Goalscorer Bo Hlaing Bo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ko Sa Aung Pyae
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dagon 30 / 100
Shan United 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dagon Shan United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dagon found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Dagon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Shan United conceded in 56% of 34 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Dagon VS Shan United
2 Goals Scored 3.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Dagon

(Home)
06 Sept
Ayeyawady
0 : 5
Dagon
29 Aug
Dagon
2 : 0
Hantharwady United
18 Mar
Yangon United
4 : 0
Dagon
09 Mar
Thitsar Arman
2 : 2
Dagon
03 Mar
Dagon
1 : 0
Mahar United
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Shan United

(Away)
14 Sept
Shan United
2 : 0
Ezra
11 Sept
Ezra
3 : 2
Shan United
05 Sept
Myawady
0 : 4
Shan United
30 Aug
Yangon Royals
2 : 2
Shan United
18 Mar
Shan United
1 : 0
Hantharwady United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shan United 22 18 4 0 66:10 58
2 Yangon United 22 18 3 1 70:7 57
3 Dagon 22 11 6 5 39:30 39
4 Ispe 22 9 4 9 35:46 31
5 Hantharwady United 22 7 7 8 32:34 28
6 Mahar United 22 7 7 8 39:44 28
7 Yadanarbon 22 7 5 10 38:38 26
8 Ayeyawady 22 7 5 10 25:26 26
9 Thitsar Arman 22 5 9 8 36:38 24
10 Dagon Port 22 5 7 10 44:62 22
11 Rakhine United 22 5 4 13 28:54 19
12 Yarmanya United 22 1 3 18 17:80 6
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