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Danubio vs CA Cerro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Severo A.
38'
Jourdan M.
46'
Sub
Trasante J. In: Velazquez A.
Out: Trasante J.

AI Match Summary

CA Cerro in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored CA Cerro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Danubio
15%
Draws
26%
CA Cerro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Danubio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to CA Cerro lately — more wins on the board than Danubio.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Danubio taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Danubio Clean Sheet 68%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Danubio CA Cerro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 11 6
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs CA Cerro
0:1
Feb 9, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Danubio
0:1
Sep 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs CA Cerro
5:1
Mar 23, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
CA Cerro vs Danubio
1:1
Nov 14, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs CA Cerro
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Danubio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

CA Cerro Compare

Top Goalscorer Severo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Danubio 95 / 100
CA Cerro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Danubio CA Cerro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Danubio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CA Cerro let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Danubio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: CA Cerro has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Danubio VS CA Cerro
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Danubio

(Home)
01 Nov
Danubio
1 : 2
Club Nacional
29 Oct
Wanderers Durazno
0 : 3
Danubio
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1
Danubio
18 Oct
Danubio
1 : 0
Central Esp.
15 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 6
Danubio
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CA Cerro

(Away)
31 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Central Esp.
25 Oct
Montevideo City
3 : 1
CA Cerro
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1
Cerro Largo
10 Oct
Defensor Sp.
2 : 3
CA Cerro
04 Oct
CA Cerro
0 : 2
Wanderers
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)