Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Danubio vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Fernandez S.
32'
Gonzalez M.
49'
Mayada C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Danubio and Maldonado finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Danubio
28%
Draws
50%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Maldonado carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Maldonado a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Danubio Clean Sheet 12%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Danubio Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 15
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.75 2
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
3:1
Apr 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Maldonado
1:1
Dec 2, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
3:1
Jun 3, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Maldonado
1:1
Nov 6, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Danubio
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Danubio Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Tabo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Danubio 22 / 100
Maldonado 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Danubio Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldonado let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Danubio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Danubio found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Danubio VS Maldonado
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Danubio

(Home)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
05 Jun
Wanderers
0 : 0
Danubio
30 May
Danubio
1 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

Maldonado

(Away)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)