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Stadium Background

Danubio vs Penarol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Umpierrez L.
46'
Sub
Trasante J. In: Millan J.
Out: Trasante J.
46'
Sub
Femia E. In: Tizon C.
Out: Femia E.

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Danubio
30%
Draws
18%
Penarol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Danubio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Danubio haven't matched Penarol's recent run of results.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Danubio taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Danubio Clean Sheet 68%
Penarol Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Danubio Penarol
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 14
Draws 11 11
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 1 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Danubio vs Penarol
1:1
Sep 5, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Penarol
0:4
Mar 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Danubio
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Danubio
2:0
Apr 5, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Danubio vs Penarol
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Danubio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Umpierrez L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Arezo M.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Danubio 95 / 100
Penarol 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Danubio Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Danubio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Danubio has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Danubio found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Danubio VS Penarol
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Danubio

(Home)
01 Nov
Danubio
1 : 2
Club Nacional
29 Oct
Wanderers Durazno
0 : 3
Danubio
24 Oct
Maldonado
2 : 1
Danubio
18 Oct
Danubio
1 : 0
Central Esp.
15 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 6
Danubio
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Penarol

(Away)
31 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Wanderers
27 Oct
Penarol
0 : 2
Montevideo City
23 Oct
Juventud
0 : 0
Penarol
18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Penarol
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)