Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
A one-off knockout match in the Copa Uruguay. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Penarol have shipped 0.91 goals a game lately, while Danubio have conceded 1.33 and scored 0.9. Past meetings favor Penarol slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 5, 2026, ending 0:4. Model xG sits at 0.56 vs 1.50, favoring Penarol. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Danubio haven't matched Penarol's recent run of results.
- Penarol are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Penarol arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Penarol have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Danubio | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 34 |
| Wins | 6 | 16 |
| Draws | 12 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 0.91 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.56 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penarol let in goals in 68% of their last 34 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Attacking prowess: Danubio scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Danubio went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Danubio
(Home)Penarol
(Away)League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 | Montevideo City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Danubio | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 4 | Atenas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Colonia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Defensor Sp. | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 3 | Rentistas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 4 | Cerro Largo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maldonado | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cerrito | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 3 | CA Cerro | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 4 | Wanderers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Esp. | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Racing Montevideo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 3 | Juventud | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Club Oriental De Futbol | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:3 | 0 |
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 | Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 3 | River Plate Montevideo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Progreso | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 0 |
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston River | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Fenix | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
| 4 | Colon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | 1 |
