Sport Picks

Danubio vs Penarol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay

Copa Uruguay

Danubio

1 - 1

Penarol

Our Tip

Match Events

53'

Rodriguez G.

Own Goal

81'

Peralta M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Danubio

30%

Draws

18%

Penarol

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Danubio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence

Danubio haven't matched Penarol's recent run of results.
Danubio are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Penarol arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%

Danubio Clean Sheet 68%

Penarol Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Danubio	Penarol
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	6	14
Draws	11	11
Losses	13	5
Goals Scored	1	1.47
Goals Conceded	1.23	0.8
Expected Goals (xG)	1.19	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 24, 2026 Copa Uruguay

Danubio vs Penarol

1:1

Sep 5, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Danubio vs Penarol

0:4

Mar 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Penarol vs Danubio

1:1

Oct 5, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Penarol vs Danubio

2:0

Apr 5, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Danubio vs Penarol

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Danubio Compare

Top Goalscorer Peralta M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.92

Avg xA / game 0.59

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Danubio 95 / 100

Penarol 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Danubio Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Danubio Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Danubio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Danubio scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Danubio VS Penarol

1.5 Goals Scored 1.38

0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88

63% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Danubio

(Home)

01 Nov

Danubio

1 : 2

Club Nacional

29 Oct

Wanderers Durazno

0 : 3

Danubio

24 Oct

Maldonado

2 : 1

Danubio

18 Oct

Danubio

1 : 0

Central Esp.

15 Oct

Central Esp.

0 : 6

Danubio

Page 1 of 6

Penarol

(Away)

31 Oct

Penarol

1 : 1

Wanderers

27 Oct

Penarol

0 : 2

Montevideo City

23 Oct

Juventud

0 : 0

Penarol

18 Oct

Liverpool M.

1 : 0

Penarol

10 Oct

Penarol

1 : 1

Progreso

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